PeterGlenshaw.com

The End of Summer 2011

The economy is terrible.  Our national politics are worse.  A tropical storm just devastated friends and family in Vermont.  But, somehow, the summer of 2011 will go on record in the Glenshaw household as one of the best ever.  

Go figure.

Tropical storm notwithstanding, the weather was amazing: warm, with little rain, and lots of sun.  The kids went to camp, earned money, travelled far and near, and played loud card games into the night. Elizabeth and I acted as if we were 25 again -- running, biking and swimming with enthusiasm, though maybe not with the results to support our effort.  

We ate sweet corn, sweeter tomatoes, and celebrated four birthdays with 8 or 9 birthday cakes. We walked to the country store for soft serve ice cream.  We celebrated Lyme's 250th anniversary over a 24-hour period that still seems like a magical moment of harmony and transendence.  We welcomed my sister, Annie, and her wonderful family from South Africa, to Lyme, NH, for a long weekend after a longer five-year absence from their presence in the United States.

Amidst the happiness, we also said good-bye to two dear family friends this summer -- Barbara Colliton and Bob Redfern.  A good and decent neighbor in Lyme also died this year, and my last conversation with her is one I will never forget.  Somehow, these moments also made the summer magical. 

Maybe they added to the moments of transcendence.  I will never forget hiking a few mountains, playing soccer and football in the tropical storm, or learning new card games every few weeks.  Add to the mix the joy of demonstrating old water-skiing skills, new jet-ski tricks, and Hannah and I playing tennis 2-3 times every week since early June (and in the process, learning both new skills and a better appreciation for one another), and it quickly becomes a tableau of other-worldliness.

Closer to earth, we went to Fenway and saw Tek drive a two-run homerun into the bullpen.  

We learned to drive, we learned the best route to drive to a new job, and one of us even began tentatively working on a new book.  It was that kind of summer -- crazy wonderful, loving, creative, and fun, fun, fun.  

I've made myself a pledge.  One day, I will return to my childhood and have a full summer vacation -- no work from mid-June to the end of August.  Barring that year, this one will go into the books as one of the best ever.  

I am grateful to everyone who helped make it so.  Here are some pictures that capture the best way to bring a close to a great season. 

Making Sense of the Flood

Hurricane Irene has passed, and it has not spared the great state of Vermont.  And yet we hardly got hit in New Hampshire.  Why?

Noah, the namesake of our third child, was someone who knew a thing or two about floods. And yet his whole story, at a very basic level, is very disturbing for anyone who thinks 1) of God as loving and benevolent, and 2) of so-called natural disasters as being "natural." Here, for instance, is the passage from Genesis 6:5-7 that sets up the story for Noah, his infamous ark, and the flood which made it all possible.

The Lord saw that the wickedness of humankind was great in the earth, and that every inclination of the thoughts of their hearts was only evil continually. And the Lord was sorry that he had made humankind on the earth, and it grieved him to his heart. So the Lord said, ‘I will blot out from the earth the human beings I have created—people together with animals and creeping things and birds of the air, for I am sorry that I have made them.’ 

Today, as I tried to make my way from my home in Lyme, NH, on the western-most side of New Hampshire, to Vermont Law School in the near-center of South Royalton, VT, it was hard to think anything benevolent behind the devastation I saw.  

Roads gone.

Homes destroyed, and carried downriver.

Bridges taken out.  Farms flooded.  Cattle dead.  

Human lives -- at least three so far -- destroyed. 

Towns and neighborhoods trapped -- unable, for now, to reach the rest of the state and region.

What kind of God would allow this occur?

Students of religion know this kind of question is not new.  Why does God permit suffering?  Why do wars or worse (e.g.,the Holocaust) occur?

It's a complicated set of questions, and the responses which come forth are not easy to summarize in a blog post. Some argue that God uses these moments as a test, not simply to separate the wheat from the chaff but to help us see the divine. Others suggest God is not so involved in the day-to-day of human affairs, and that these events occur either because God permits human agency or the randomness of life unconnected to the divine.  I'm strongly inclined to towards the latter point-of-view, but the existence of suffering nevertheless poses really challenges to anyone who cares both about divine and the human condition. 

How to reconcil?

It helps, in this situation, to have a bit of historical perspective on how we, as a species, have reacted to natural disaster.  Simon Winchester's very interesting book from 2006, A Crack in the Edge of the World, outlines two very contradictory but important responses to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.  On the one hand, it led to an increased interest in a scientific explanation for earthquakes (keep in mind that the initial theory plate tectonics, now widely accepted, dates only to 1968).  At the same time, the earthquake helped to fuel the growth of the Pentecostal religious movement, which began just four days earlier on Azusa Street in Los Angeles. 

No wonder Michelle Bachmann, a Republican Congresswoman from Minnesota who does not believe in evolution, has claimed that Hurricane Irene was, duh, a wakeup call from God to "get the attention of the politicians."  Sure, less than 24 hours after making the statement, Congresswoman Bachmann now claims this was a joke (judge for yourself here: http://wapo.st/qTlfYP), but even the most devoted of believers in her Presidential campaign would admit that her comments nevertheless tapped into the deep ambiguity we feel regarding floods and other disasters that don't appear to have the direct hand of human intervention.

What hath God wrought?

Tomorrow morning, I will drive to Vermont Law School in South Royalton, VT.  I will take the long route from I-91 to I-89 because the shortcut over VT-132 and VT-14 are gone.  And once I get off the highway, I will travel along the Back River Road -- past the farms whose fences are bent and destroyed, past the field with the boat in its far corner, and past the mobile home half-filled with silt and mud from the White River.  

Before I travel, though, I said nightly prayers with my son (the same Noah).  It was a prayer which we say every day.  After thanking God for our family and friends and asking God to keep them safe, it ends with these words: "Please mind all of those people who don't have safe home like our's tonight."

Did that prayer work last night?  Did God listen?

There's a lot more to say on this subject, but let me suggest one approach: God listens, but does not dictate.  More specifically, floods such as Irene happen for a 1,001 reasons, but our faithfulness (or lack thereof) is not among them.  Yes, we are sinners.  Yes, we must do a better to lead lives that are closer to God.  God forgives and, most importantly, does not specifically stage events like Hurricane Irene in order to test us.  Such an understanding of the divine involves trivializing that which cannot be so diminished.  

Winter, Part III

The title of this post sounds like something you might find on the marquee of a "B" movie theater or some low-rent Netflix on-demand video, but I'd argue it's actually the time of year when a person decides whether to live in northern New England.

There's some variability to each year in snowfall, temperature, and wind, but the bottom line from year-to-year remains largely the same: Spring might officially begin less than three weeks from today for the rest of the United States, but in these northern woods of New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine, Winter will remain in place for another 4-6 weeks. 

Here, then, is how Winter unfolds in these parts. 

Winter, Part I: Halloween to December 15th.  Temps drop precipitously, dry land training occurs in earnest, and Night begins to envelope Day.  

Winter, Part II: hopefully, Snow, baby, Snow.  From the first serious snowfall of the season to the penultimate, this is the core of Winter -- far shorter than people might expect, generally lasting from mid-December to the end of February or early March. In these parts, I'd mark it both by temperature and the amount of snowfall in the deep woods. 

And Winter, Part III? 

Fact: Over the last 11 years, I've mostly hidden eggs and candy in the snow during  Easter.

Fact: The coldest runs I take each occur over the next six weeks, as the earth remains frozen despite the increasing amount of sunlight.

Fact: Snow and ice are stubborn.  After Winters such as we've enjoyed these last two months, when there is easily 5-6 feet of snow in my front and back yard, it will take either a Spring with temperatures of exceedingly high temps or (more likely) a lot of time to get the white stuff off the lawn.

Fact:  One year, the ice mound in the cool, dark corner of my house remained in place until May.  This year, it could happen again.  

And so, when the rest of the world in the Northern Hempisphere is just a few weeks away from daffodils and crocuses, this world of northern New England still involves strong winds, cold temps, and mounds of snow.  It's now, in Winter III, that a person decides to flee or stay.

I'd argue, in fact, that it's relatively easy to love living in northern New England for the remaining 10 months of the year.  Spring is fantastic.  Summer, warm but not oppressive like the rest of the climate-challenged nation.  Fall, beautiful beyond words.  And most of Winter -- assuming enough snow -- is just great.  

But March to mid-to-late April?  

Dicey.  Awkward.  Gray.  Maybe even Ugly.

It's this time of year when the decision is made to become a Yankee.  

Don't get me wrong: I'm here to stay.  Tonight I loved donning my Lands End winter coat with strong hat and warm gloves while I walked Bear (my dog) as the wind howled and the field of stars twinkled above us.  Tomorrow it promises to be below zero Fahrenheit in the morning, and by the time we head to the School District meeting at 7pm to vote on the annual budget, I expect the temperature will have fallen below zero again.  I will walk to the meeting and back home again, with my lined Carharts and vest and the rest of the gear.  None of it will will concern me in the least.  I will relish the stubborn cold, and ask for more.

Fact is, it's easy now to beckon the outdoors to throw more punishment my way.  Even here, over the next 30 days, will see an unmistakeable trend towards warming.  Perhaps the snow in my backyard won't fade, but by the end of this month, it will be routinely above 35 degrees during the day and maybe even above freezing at night.

A neighbor of mine, who lives next to one of the dominant creeks in Lyme that flows directly into the Connecticut River, once described the calamity which occurs once his creek thaws as Winter fades.  For most of Winter, this creek -- measuring six to 30 feet wide -- has been covered in snow and ice, its water flowing slowly and quietly towards the river and ultimately the sea.  As the northern part of Earth tilts towards warm, as the daily high and low temperatures increase, the snow and ice begin to recede -- not quite giving up, but fading ever so certainly until one certain day.  Then, in a period of 5-10 minutes, the entire creek bed becomes a torrent of water.  The result is deafening.  Suddenly, what had been a quiet Winter creek bed becomes a noisy, Spring thaw that lasts for weeks.  

That is Spring in northern New England: Winter hanging-on, desperate, until its grip  cannot last any longer.  The result is deep mud on the roads, roaring creek beds, and grey skies for at least four weeks.  By May, much of the ugliness is gone.  Trees and flowers begin to blossom.  Grass springs anew on the lawn.  By late May, windows begin to stay open at night.

But for that moment to arrive, it takes a bit of a difficult journey to occur before this promised land of warmth can begin.  

It's not for everyone, but it's for me.

And you?

Winter

This is when it gets tough.  

The 3rd week of February, when you are walking the dog yet again in the teeth of a stiff wind and single-digit temps.

Or when you embark on a cross-country ski, only to discover the community trail is not groomed, leaving you to traverse 1-2 inches of powder atop several layers of hard pack snow and ice.  

Or when you grab the snowboard and descend a community hill, only to find a 20-25 mile wind rattling your helmet and teeth as you descend a bullet-proof hill, daring not leave the trail that is groomed for the glades that resemble a skating rink.  

A person can begin to wonder, will Winter ever end?  Certainly this is what I began to hear in my own family a few weeks ago, when there were loads of fresh powder on the ground and sweet temps in the teens to accompany it.  

Winter, end?  

Two weeks ago was the height of the 2011 season.  At the time, I cross-country skied for more than two hours each weekend day.  I hit each of my favorite trails on the Dartmouth Skiway until I thought my knees and leg muscles would fall apart.  Each weekend, I kept a regular regime of snowboarding in the morning, followed by a brief nap and then a long cross-country ski.  Dinner was a messy, confused affair, as I struggled to find the energy to prepare and cook food for five people.  All I wanted to do was fall into bed and sleep so I could repeat these activities next day.

But this was the week things began to shift.  Temperatures suddenly soared, leaving the solid world of single and below-zero temps for new territory above freezing.  In Boston on Thursday, the temperature rose as high as 62 degrees.  The same the next day in Lyme, NH.  On the heels of that rapid thaw came a hard cold, and while it might seem like Winter is here forever, the trend ahead is unmistakeable.  As we prepare to exit February, this part of the Earth tips ever closer to the Sun.  By next week, there is not a day forecast ahead that will be below freezing.  The mounds of snow that tower above my head on the road where I walk my dog will surely and slowly begin to melt.  The powder snow -- so present and welcome over the last six weeks -- will go away unless an sudden, welcome March storm should appear.  It might take another 4-6 weeks, but Winter is closing fast.

This is too bad.  We've had a glorious Winter in 2011.  Certainly better than the last two years, and perhaps one of the very best since we moved to Lyme in 2000.  After a slow start, snow fell by the bucket in January and early February.  Sure, it meant tons of work around the house, but it also brought ungodly adventures on the snowboard and cross-country skis.  Thanks to the generosity of Peoples United Bank, I got to play hooky in early February for a ski-and-ride day at Okemo after we had gotten more than 12 inches of fresh powder.  The result was one of the finest days I've ever had on the slopes.  

It capped a glorious season of cold.  And what I've learned is that the cold season of Winter, which can seem so inhospitable, might in fact be the best season of the year.  Better even than Summer.  

How so?

First, the caveats.

1) Get the right clothes.  After ten years of living in northern New England, I've learned that having six jackets, six vests, six hats, six pairs of gloves and mittens, and three outer pants is just barely enough to handle the conditions which come with Winter.  Add leggings (also six pairs), socks (12-15 pairs), special Winter pants (three pairs), and special underwear (four pairs), and you are on the way to being ready anything Winter can throw at you.

2) Don't overdress.  Sure, you got all of these clothes, but only wear what is absolutely necessary.  Learn to accommodate the cold, to adjust and cover what is essential.  For me, it's critical to cover my bald head and my skinny hands.  Get my core (chest and legs), and the rest is nice but not critical.

3) Lotion, lotion, lotion.  Cold means your skin suffers, so use lip balm everyday and cover rough spots with good moisturizers before they get rough.

4) Find two outdoor activities to embrace in the Winter.  This is the most important and hardest caveat to realize, but once mastered, it unlocks the key to a heavenly season.  Between snowboarding and cross-country skiing, I could spend almost all day, every day outside in Winter if the conditions are good.  In fact, I find myself outside as much or more in Winter than I do in Summer because I have so many activities to do.  Add in the housework of shoveling and roof-raking and ice-dam breaking, and it's not unusual to find me outside 6-9 hours every weekend day during the Winter. 

5) Go to sleep early.  I think the hardest part of Winter, the piece which does not bend, involves the loss of light from mid-November to the end of January.  It's two-and-a-half months of darkness that cannot be improved by clothing or exercise.  Sure, buying a lamp helps a lot, but there is no getting around the strength which comes from sunlight.  And during that time, well, it helps to crash in time so that you can wake at or before the sunlight.  Some of my favorite memories of Winter rest with driving thru New Hampshire before 6am, watching the sun rise over the White Mountains. 

One month from now, Spring will officially begin on March 21st.  I expect our lawn will remain largely covered in snow by then, and that there won't be a hint of flowers or new grass for at least another month.  But Winter will be over nonetheless.  Over the next month, the temperatures will no doubt fluctuate from -10 to 50 degrees.  The ground will harden and soften.  I will move from heavy jackets and multiple layers to light jackets and one layer.  The light will grow and grow, until I find myself cooking dinner once again in the warmth of twilight. 

And in that moment, when I serve dinner at 7pm and see light outside, I will cast into the past for that time just a few months ago, in the Winter of 2011, when it was cold and dark outside, and I was tired from having covered each end of the Earth I knew with my skis and snowboard. 

The Physicality of Winter

We're in the heart of an incredible Winter, with plenty of snow and ice for all sorts of great outdoor activities.  The result is sheer happiness, and a very tired body.

To whit, here are today's activities:  

• Awake on a Saturday at 6:30AM to prep for ski training by Noah and Jacob. Feed dog, clean kitchen, make breakfast, help pack bags, and deliver kids to Dartmouth Skiway. 
• Embark on two quick runs on the snowboard at 9am.  Second run includes a first-time traverse of an amazing double-black, unmarked, glade trail between MD and MBA/Herman's Highway that seems to go forever.  Exit the run sweating and smiling from the effort.
• Back home to take care of other errands; get to sit at desk for 30 minutes. Smile.
• Back to Skiway at 12:30pm.  Three more runs, including another pass at the afore-mentioned unmarked double-black diamond glade run.  More happiness. 
• Return home, and promptly climb on roof to clear last remaining snow on the flat but-oh-so-slippery roof atop my home office.  Tools include roof rake, shovel, and axe.  Thirty minutes later, 80% of the snow is cleared.
• Food needed ASAP: carbs, protein, water, sugar.  Inhale all of it.
• Join Elizabeth for a cross-country ski.  Ninety minutes later, after two major climbs and three fast descents, we are walking home.  Trails are sweet, beautifully tracked, and full of snow.
• Upon return home, climb roof again to clear remaining 20% of snow.  Then spend another 30 minutes clearing trenches of snow around home office so that snow does not destroy windows or siding of house.  
• Upon entering house, decide it is really important to do sit-ups.  Why?  Don't ask. Later, after 200 sit-ups, I collapse into bed for a 15 minute siesta.  
• Make dinner -- spinach, rice, and curried chicken.  Customers say: flavorful but not spicy enough.  Sigh. 
• After dinner, enter basement and tune four pairs of skis for an hour and 15 minutes.  
• Upon exiting basement, discover that Mother Nature has dumped 3-4 inches of fresh powder on my driveway and that the Lyme Dept of Public Works (who have done an amazing job this season) have plowed my road, leaving an extra crust of snow at the crest of my driveway.
• Spend 45 minutes clearing driveway of snow, knowing that Elizabeth must leave at 6:45AM tomorrow for a ski race at Sunapee with Noah.  

There it is: Winter 2011.  It's a bounty of activity.  In years like this, when there is plenty of snow and cold, I find myself outside as much or more than during the Summer.  Combine the exercise with the work of snow/ice removal, and it's a full plate of physicality.  

On a night like tonight -- with a clear sky, comfortable temps, and a 3/4 moon -- a person could wax poetic about this situation.  And believe me, I think this is heaven.  If there is an afterlife, this is what I want to do. Be outside and work, play, work.

But until then, I will be content to muster the strength to face each situation, and take Advil in-between. 

The Good, Deep Snow

Winter has landed, safely and firmly, in Lyme, New Hampshire, and that is a relief to those of us who find this season as enjoyable as Summer for the pleasures it offers outdoors.  

Sure, we were worried this year would be a repeat of the past few Winters when we drove north to Cannon Mountain on January 2nd in torrential rainstorm that turned the parking lot of the ski resort into a mud season mess.  

But since then, it's been nothing but snowstorms and cold temperatures. The deep snow has come and stayed.  This is joy.

When Winter is this good, it means you can a Saturday snowboarding or skiing at the Dartmouth Skiway for two to three hours in powder or packed powder, go home for lunch, and then spend another two hours cross-country skiing on the incredible trails groomed by generous neighbors.  

It means you forget, at least for a while, the hours spent shoveling the driveway, removing ice dams from the roof, and clearing backyard decks of snow.  It means you don't mind the cold (it was 0° Fahrenheit this morning).  It means the short hours of sunshine are precious, and to be spent outdoors as much as possible. 

Deep snow transforms the land.  Ordinary inclines become a magnet for children with sleds.  Four-legged creatures can longer roam the woods anonymously.  With a clear sky, the moon and sun shine brighter with the reflection from this winter blanket.  Light from the sky bends and bounces differently with the deep snow, too.

The deep snow also brings moments of discovery -- an alpine ski trail filled powder.  A nordic hill untouched.  Yesterday, I went to the outlook overlooking Post Pond and at just that moment, the afternoon sun touched Mount Cube and made it seem alight with fire.  For two brief minutes, the mountain glowed and glowed.  

I've made a quick photo album that show some samples of the deep snow in Lyme last week.  Enjoy them, and look forward to more posts later this week, including a few words on the 11th birthday of my youngest son, Noah, and on the Dartmouth Skiway.

Dirty Snow (Another Ski Season)

The dirty snow came much, much earlier this year.

After two years of near-record snowfall in New Hampshire, we experienced a Winter this year that was below normal and certainly less welcoming.  Though temperatures stayed comfortably below freezing throughout most of January and February, which made it possible for ski resorts to make snow, the natural snowfall effectively in ended around here in early January.  I know snow fell everywhere else on the East Coast this Winter, but the sad fact is that NYC and Washington DC probably got as much snow as we did this year.  Add to the mix a devastating late January thaw and rain over several days, and it's no surprise that the New Hampshire woods, even in mid-February, were thin in terms of snow.  

Now it's the second week of March, temperatures are consistently in the 40s, the snow is almost completely gone in the woods, and even the hills for alpine are getting thin.  Sure there are exceptions -- travel north to the White Mountains, or west or east to other peaks in Vermont and Maine, and you will fund incredibly abundant snow -- but the signs point to an inescapable conclusion: Winter is on the wane in northern New Hampshire, and Spring is just around the corner.

I know this conclusion to be true for another reason.  Tonight is probably the first Friday in 12 weeks when I've not had to tune three (or more) pairs of skis. Tomorrow morning is also certainly the first Saturday since early December when the kids can sleep past 8am.  Most weekend mornings in the Winter, we (like all good ski-racing families) find ourselves getting up sooner than we do during the week.  It's a routine which defines our Winter.  Early morning alarms, nights in the basement tuning skis, and a constant turnover of gear, food, and clothing in preparation for the next practice or race. 

You might think, upon reading the above, that I'm complaining.  Far from it.  I think Winter is our prime season.  It's when we are tested and learn the most, not only from the rigor of the sport and the demands upon time which it places, but also from the sheer joy that comes with doing all of this work in order to do one simple thing: go outside in the dead of Winter.

Over the course of ten winters in New Hampshire, I've come to realize that it's entirely possible to spend as much time outdoors in the cold months as the warm months.  It all comes down to having the right clothing, attitude, and schedule. Sure, we're very tired now.  Like the dirty snow, we are kinda faltering after more than three months of early mornings and late afternoon practices and races.  But would we really truly trade these months for something more relaxed and somnolent. Hardly.

We've learnt instead to make this season our own.  We can describe the snow in at least 12 different ways, depending on the temperature, wind, and ground conditions.  We own multiple jackets, pants, gloves, and skis -- all of which address a different Winter condition.  We have skis and boards and sleds and bright lights for the dark nights.  We own three shovels, a roof rake, and have a constant supply of de-icer and sand at-the-ready. 

So, in some ways, as welcome as the slow-down is, I also find myself in this time of year desperately missing the dead of Winter.  I want just a few more weeks of deadening cold.  I want snow drifts and snowfall.  I want to hear and feel the howl of Winter as I ride the chairlift.  I want to cross-country ski across a cold field and head into woods that are filled with snow.  I want to see frozen ponds and white land everywhere.

It's bittersweet when the dirty snow arrives.  Regardless of how good or imperfect Winter has been, it's still been Winter.  Over the course of this glorious season in any year, I've ridden my favorite trails.  I've seen my favorite landscapes.  The world has been transformed by cold and snow and ice, and I've felt the pleasure which comes from coolth and warm to my hands, face, and feet.

That's gone now.  If we're lucky, we might escape and head north to Burke, Bretton Woods, Cannon, or Jay for a special Spring weekend.  But we know, even as we pull the car out of the garage and head to these far-away spots, the grass in the backyard has re-emerged.  The pitch-back has been pulled out of storage.  Instead of walking around snow drifts on Lyme Common, my dog, Bear, and I spend evenings throwing and retrieving baseballs in the backyard.   Spring cannot be denied.

Over Reaching Republicans

What a difference a year makes, yes?

After all, in 2009, Republican candidates win gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and gay marriage is overturned in Maine.  What's not to like if you are a conservative? Coupled with coverage in most leading media that suggests a gap exists in the electorate for Democrats, and you have to imagine Republicans find themselves happily and unexpectedly sitting pretty tonight.

Perfect.

That's just where we what the opposition to think.

The flaw in their thinking?

Let's start with the strength of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in NJ and VA, which I would call tepid, at best.  

The New Jersey Governor, Jon Corzine, was a disaster.  By the end of his first term, he polled in the low 30s in terms of favorability.  He continued to believe that money, not political skills or personal charm, could bring success in politics.   Like a hamster, he went round-and-round on the political wheel, but one never sensed him growing in the job as a leader or political figure. New Jersey is as Democratic a state as you will find, and it takes a pretty terrible Democratic incumbent to lose it. 

And in Virginia, a state whose politics I know reasonably well, it's fair to say Creigh Deeds was no Tim Kaine and certainly no Mark Warner or Jim Webb.  Let's face it -- Democrats with a moderate disposition who executed well throughout their campaign tend to win in this bellwether southern state.  It voted for Obama; it has two Democratic Senators, and Democrats seemed to own the corner office in the state house for the last decade.  Creigh Deeds was a nice guy who waffled on taxes, waffled on his support for Obama, and had only a 20-year old thesis to distinguish him from his opponent.  Not exactly the Right Stuff.

And Maine?  Hey, let's be clear: gay rights are not protected and endorsed by the majority of voters.  That's no surprise.  Some 31 states have voted against gay marriage when it appears on the ballot.  Would the Civil Rights Acts of 1964 and 1965 been approved by most states at that time?

So, Republicans are encouraged by the fact that they can beat weak Democratic candidates and continue a tradition wherein two-thirds of most states oppose gay marriage at the ballot box. 

Terrific.  

The bottom line is this for Democrats:  most voters like and support Obama.  At the same time, they are worried about the economy, about their own jobs, and about the future.  They like this White House, but they need to see their own lives improving if they are going to vote Democratic in 2012.

As for the 2010 elections, I expect Obama and the Dems to make plenty of decisions that are short-term unpopular (meaning 2010), but medium-term popular (meaning 2012 and beyond). Most economists predict terrible unemployment thru next year's mid-term elections, and that cannot help the incumbent party.  

The good news for Democrats lies in places like Claremont, NH.  This city on the western part of the Granite state, once one of the most conservative places in New Hampshire, failed to endorse a conservative insurrection that arose regarding caps on spending.  Instead of embracing what might seen as a tried-and-true, anti-incumbent initiative, Claremont voters overwhelmingly supported candidates who supported economic growth and ongoing investment in their community.  If Democrats can demonstrate the progress that is the explicit promise in the progressive ideology, coupled with sound candidates for office, they will win. 

And if not -- if they waffle and fail to execute -- they will lose.

Sure, Republicans should not over-reach based on the election results from a few states in 2009.  But Democrats must also pay heed and understand that results, not ideology, wins elections.

Back to the Woods, Back to the Writing

One of the joys of Fall in northern New England -- at least for those of us who pursue crazy aerobic sports -- lies in leaving the world of clean, open spaces for the tightness which comes with the forest.

Gone are the open roads.  Gone are the bike climbs upon hot asphalt, the swims in the warm, open water (much missed), and the running on steamy roads and byways. Now the wind is howling.  The temperature has dropped precipitously.  Snow is predicted.  Being in the open ain't that much fun anymore.  

Now it's time to head to the hills.  The woods beckon, the dense forest where deer and chipmunk and flocks of turkeys and geese abound.  Here, the wind disappears. Here, the sun still shines and the ground is firm. Here, there is light and opportunity, and you can still wear biking shorts.

In the past three weeks, as the weather has changed, I've also got a new (used) mountain bike.  After biking up and down hills on a 20-year old bike, literally a mail-order special, I'm happy to report a happy change in equipment.  It's like I died and went to heaven.  Hills that I could never climb before are covered in an instant.  Downhill charges that left my bones rattled and my brain addled are now sweet events with rolling encounters over a severe landscape.  That muddy patch?  I take it without a concern.  Need a really, really low gear to navigate a tricky path?  No problem.  I'm a semi-god on the dirt trails of Lyme, New Hampshire.

Amidst the fun which comes with jumping, turning, and twisting on this new bike lies the realization that writing -- my salvation -- has been ignored for far too long.  There are a host of legitimate excuses why I've stayed away from this blog, but none of them really suffice.  Over the last year, as I've written less and less, I've also realized how much I need to write more and more.

Just as a new bike brings me new joy to a cool season, the prospect of writing (indeed, the act itself of writing) brings joy to me in a troubled time.  I'm not a perfect writer.  I'm not much of a public writer.  But I've learned to accept my fate as a writer.  Every word, every letter, every sentence that I commit -- all of them bring me hope and solace and insight.

So, here's to more mountain bike rides and here's to more writing.  It's the least I can do.

The Yankee Republican Returns

Just when a person thought things could not improve for the Republican Party – reeling as it was from the philandering of Senator Ensign and Governor Sanford, as well as the bizarre behavior of Governor Palin (if you want to read a semi-illiterate missive from the Alaskan governor, click here ) – two old-fashioned Yankee Republicans in New England stepped forward to begin reclaiming their party.

Yesterday, it was New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who announced her resignation later this month to explore a run for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2010 (Republican Judd Gregg currently holds the seat and has announced he won’t run again). 

Today it was Charlie Baker, the Massachusetts wunderkid who served in two of the biggest jobs in the Bay State -- Secretary of Health and Human Services and later as Secretary of Finance and Administration – and who announced he was going to run for Governor of the Commonwealth in 2010.

Just like that, the species of Yankee Republican – thought to be dead, done, and gone – has returned like a phoenix. 

Here’s what we know both of them share.

• Managerial competence

Baker has far more stripes on his uniform, both in government and in business (where he served as CEO for two large, very complex organizations, Harvard Vanguard and Harvard Pilgrim), but both Ayotte and Baker have solid reputations as straight-shooters who consider facts first, and then think about ideology.

• Fiscal conservatism 

We don’t know as much about Ayotte in this regard, but Baker’s record is clear on this issue and my suspicion is that Ayotte will be very similarly tight-fisted.  Both candidates are banking on spending and stewardship of tax dollars to be the number one issue for voters in 2010.  They will argue that Lynch, Patrick, and Obama have been spending tax dollars recklessly and inefficiently.

•  Refusal to embrace conservative social issues  

Other than endorsing a strong law-and-order perspective, I don’t expect either Ayotte or Baker to bear-hug conservative social issues significantly.  While we will see what each candidate says and does on the campaign trail (see below), and while I expect each candidate will mouth support for conservative positions like so-called traditional marriage, immigration, and abortion, I also expect neither candidate will adopt a call to overturn existing laws or judicial rulings in their respective states.  I think it’s reasonable to expect them to endorse charter schools, but look for a libertarian-to-moderate social conservatism from both candidates.  And expect both to be pro-environment. 

•  Likeability  

It’s hard to deny that both candidates offer a lot to like – they’re smart, earnest, hard-working, pleasant on the eyes, and not ideologically paralyzed. We will learn a lot more about them on the campaign trail, but on paper and in person (so far), both Baker and Ayotte have a lot going for them.

• Inexperience  

Neither Baker nor Ayotte has run for statewide office before.  We have no idea how well they will do, either in terms of connecting with a huge swath of voters or in terms of managing a campaign enterprise. 

One of Obama’s secret assets during the 2008 campaign was how well he managed his own team – it showed he had the managerial chops to run the federal government.   The nod here has to go to Baker in terms of delivering the goods, if only because he has far more work experience than Ayotte.  On the other hand, running a statewide campaign in New Hampshire is far easier than in Massachusetts. 

Aside from the managerial demands, I think the great unknown is how they each do in front of crowds, big and small.  In this YouTube age, when every comment can and will be recorded, it’s not at all clear that they will be as good in the public square as they are in the governmental office.  It’s true that Deval Patrick had none of this experience when he ran, and it’s probably true, too, that John Lynch won three gubernatorial elections without mastering the art of a public presentation, but Ayotte and Baker must still present (day after day) in forums other than their own choosing for months and months if they are to be successful in November 2010. 

So, who will fare best some 15 months from now, Ayotte or Baker?  I’d have to give the nod to Baker.  He’s got more government experience, a deeper rolodex for fundraising, proven managerial skills, and an electorate happy to elect Republican Governors to counter the strangle-hold that the corrupt Massachusetts Democratic Party has over statehouse politics.  Ayotte faces a real uphill battle, despite polling numbers that whisper otherwise like a siren.  Though a solid public servant, she will struggle from a variety of issues (no support from John Lynch, a modest rolodex, and no experience in retail politics), but none will be so damning as her swim against the demographic stream in the Granite State.  As Andy Smith of UNH and others have demonstrated, the New Hampshire electorate has swung Democratic.  They outnumber Republicans in terms of voter registration, and if you add independent voters to the mix, the advantage clearly belongs to the Dems.  I predict that Hodes will beat Ayotte so long as Obama’s popularity remains above 55% in New Hampshire in November 2010 (which would be about ten points below where the President polls today), and he makes no major mistakes on the campaign trail.    

Regardless of who wins in November 2010, the events of the past two days signal an important moment for the Republican Party nationally, one which Democrats ought to notice.  First, the Obama cool – in managing, consideration of world events, and style – can be co-opted by the other party.  Democrats also ought to notice that spending (and its twin, the deficit) will be the policy issues upon which Republicans run in 2010.  Democrats will not only have to defend their choices, but hope that the economy shows sustainable signs of recovery by the next mid-term election if they are to retain their advantage in Congress and among governorships.