It's been a while since I posted to my blog, owing more to the insane schedule that defines Winter for my family than anything else.
In the 15 weeks since Thanksgiving, we've balanced 12 public meetings on the Lyme School budget, almost weekly Lyme budget committee meetings, four-days-a-week of ski-race instruction (including travel to mountains several hours away from our home), twice-a-week basketball practice or games which I coached for 10 weeks, and twice-a-week work or volunteer commitments in the evening for both myself and Elizabeth.
Plus visitors on weekends. Oh, and plus work for both of us.
Mud season approaches, and a gentle cheer erupts from everyone in the Glenshaw household. It means on weekends we can get up after 5:30am. It means we eat dinner together for four or more nights of the week. It means a return to a normal schedule as a family.
Alas, since November (more like September), there has been no normal in terms of the economy. And in fact, since January, what had been a good-to-bad situation has grown far, far worse. Indeed last week, as I listened to two podcasts from Business Week and The New Yorker about the economic crisis, I heard the word "depression" mentioned several times as term most appropriate for describing the economic conditions we face.
We can quibble about whether the term is appropriate, but there is no mistaking the dire situation ahead. For instance, when my employer made the decision to reduce 150 positions through a combination of attrition, layoffs, and early retirement, the Dow stood at approximately 9,000. A week ago the Dow was at 6,500 and today nothing much more than a sheer desire for optimism has the index nudging just north of 7,200.
I was one of those affected. Although I was not laid-off, my hours and pay have been reduced by 20%. Add the extra cost for health benefits in this situation, and the impact is more like 25%.
The economic road ahead is not just rocky and hard to navigate. It's frankly dangerous.
Consider the fundamental industries in near or complete collapse today: finance, housing, and automobile. Previous recessions saw high-tech or energy alone as the primary drivers of economic recession. You don't need a doctorate in economics to understand that multiple pillars of the economy in economic distress -- coupled with global interdependency and the volatility which accompanies Internet-age communication -- makes for a destabilizing financial system that will require a significant amount of time for complete recovery.
Maybe this is what a 21st century Depression looks like.
I also find myself deeply concerned with the lack of national unity on this issue. Sure, everyone knows there is an economic crisis at hand, but there seems to be a distinctive lack of national commitment to solving the problem together. Warren Buffett compared this moment to Pearl Harbor, yet I sense no response that compares with that historical moment. Instead it feels like a pack of ducks or geese dominates the headlines. We seem more committed to pecking on the shortfalls in prescriptions made by others than on navigating the road ahead together.
So, in the spirit of national unity, here is my prescription for the next few months.
- Patience plus. These days, it takes much longer than I would like to travel from my home to the Dartmouth Skiway because of the many frost heaves between here and there. Go too fast, and the transmission on your car will get ripped out. Go too slow, and you risk angering everyone behind your too-slow-car. Let's assume the same pace with the development of economic policy. Not too fast, not too slow -- middlin' is just fine.
- Breathe deeply. When things seem tough, remain calm. When good news appears (two months of profit at Citi!!!!!!!!), remain calm. In other words, be cool. Yes, three fundamental pillars of the US and perhaps global economy are in trouble, but there are a lot of sectors with promise ahead. No less than IBM shows tremendous strength ahead. GE is sure to be winner, too. A week ago, when I began this post, GE was at about $6 per share. Today it is nearly $10 per share. Hang in there.
- Re-balance, and move ahead. The next winners will be those companies, organizations, and individuals who adjust their operating plans to the new economic reality without losing sight of their fundamental mission or goal or customer. The losers will be those who become near-sighted, and wonder how will I/We/Us survive. Wrong question. The right question is, how do we grow? Make no mistake -- even in times like this, some organizations, companies, and individuals soar. Are you going to belong to this elite club, or are you going to be a wannabe?
While I still have enormous faith in our national and international economy to recover, I also believe that we are entering a period of enormous economic distress that will require a solid year or more, not months, before recovery will occur.
This time of year, as the snow and ice recede in New Hampshire, the detritus of Winter becomes apparent. Fallen tree limbs, sleds, clothing, and all manner of leave-behinds from family pets appear. In a few months, the tired grass will appear bright green in my backyard, but tonight the few patches of earth which emerge appear sick, yellow, and mangled -- crushed by the weight of four months of heavy snow and ice.
Will I have the patience to wait for the ice to recede and the green grass to return before heading into the backyard to practice pitching?
Will I have the patience to ride-out these economic frost heaves before returning to my mission as a husband, dad, and professional?
A lyric from the title title of Bruce Springsteen's newest album captures my sentiments completely in these contradictory times: "I'm workin' on a dream, though sometimes it feels so far away."
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