PeterGlenshaw.com

Bobby and Hillary

The assassination of Bobby Kennedy in Los Angeles in 1968, a few short hours after he won the California primary, when he seemed poised to have enough momentum to win the Democratic nomination, stands apart for many Americans as a defining, tragic moment in 20th century American political history.   

To be certain, Bobby Kennedy was a complicated political person, but in the last few years of his life, and especially during that 1968 campaign, a certain wisdom and clarity about what was missing in American political life seemed to capture him and, in turn, the nation through his campaign. 

His speech in Indianapolis on the night Martin Luther King was assassinated -- delivered before a largely African American crowd, many of whom had not heard the news of King's death -- captures the wisdom and promise of Bobby Kennedy, and the tragedy of his assassination less than two months later.  His brief speech in Indianapolis -- which lasted less than six minutes and which can be heard here -- remains one of the finest delivered in more than 230 years of this great nation.

In that context, the news today that Hillary Clinton referred to the assassination of Bobby Kennedy as a reason why she remains in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination stands, perhaps, as one of the lowest and self-serving remarks made in recent American political history.  You can read a partial transcript of Senator Clinton's remarks here, but the telling statement, uttered in response to a question about why she remains in the race, is this:   

My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.

Within a few hours, Senator Clinton issued a Fully Monty: a press release offering regret and dismay that anyone could have thought she had been suggesting anything untoward to Obama or hurtful of the Kennedy's, claiming that the Kennedy family had been on her mind for several days because of the news of Senator Edward Kennedy's brain tumor.  These were just facts, she said, about the calendar and the primary process.

Unfortunately, her excuse was almost as bad as the statement itself. 

Karen Tumulty of Time showed that she made the same claim in March about the 1968 Kennedy assassination in an interview with Time magazine.  With no diagnosis of Ted Kenney's brain cancer on the horizon then, it's clear the RFK assassination mention both today and in March reflects something on the mind of Senator Clinton for at least three months.  Moreover, another commentator has noted accurately that while the nomination math for then-Governor Clinton did not conclude until June 1992, the race itself was largely seen by everyone involved as being over by March 1992, according to this New York Times article.

The contrast is startling. 

On the one hand, there is Bobby Kennedy, emerging in full flower in 1968 to a new kind of politics, the kind which might just transform the nation by emphasizing our humanity and love for one another.  Thirty years later, we see Hillary Clinton, desperately hoping aloud for several months that something dramatic and fatal might occur in this race which would permit her to become the nominee. 

Unfortunately, it gets worse.  If you wondered if the Clinton name could fall any further, read this confirmed account in Politico of the X-rated celebration by Clinton campaign chair Terry McAuliffe of the campaign's victory in Kentucky.  McAuliffe's remarks and boasting -- filled with F-in' this and F-in' that -- stand for the kind of politics which both Bobby Kennedy opposed and, today, Barack Obama has sought to end.

A few months ago, I had the chance to visit Bobby Kennedy's grave in Arlington Cemetery.  It's remarkably simple, quiet, and almost unnoticeable.  What struck me most, however, was the small card left behind on his grave on this beautiful Spring day.  It simply read, "Bobby."  I have no idea what words were inside the card, but the very idea of it -- that someone would be so moved by Bobby Kennedy thirty years after his death to leave a modest personal note at his graveside -- has remained with me to this day.

Mindful of how people can change, I won't make any predictions about HIllary Clinton will be remembered compared to Bobby Kennedy.  What I do know is Senator Clinton has a long way to go before any further, positive references between herself and Bobby Kennedy can be made.

The Politics of Race 2008

In about December 2006, I received a discrete phone call from an adviser to Senator Obama about his prospective race for the Democratic nomination and the Presidency in 2008.  Towards the end of our conversation, I was asked whether or not race would play a factor in either the race for the nomination or Presidency.  My gut reaction then was quick and confident, but wrong.

"No," I said. "Americans are increasingly beyond race.  Class matters deeply, but race is fading as a dividing line.  It matters to some, of course, and always will, but not enough to make a difference in 2008."

I was wrong.  Race does matter for voters in 2008.  I will spare readers a recitation of the numbers from Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky, but the bottom line is that in those states, and in many others, white American voters who are reliably Democratic voted for Hillary Clinton and, at the same time, indicated in exit polls and in other formats that they would not, could not vote for Barack Obama.

The Real News Network has a rather scary, illuminating story which captures some of those voters in person.  Whether in the form of anecdotal reports or exit surveys, a persistent and troubling pattern emerges among white, Democratic voters with less than a high school education.  They are more inclined to believe Obama is a Muslim (he's not, even though 10% of Americans believe he is), rather than a Christian (which he is).  They also believe he is unpatriotic, as this story in Politico carefully details.

No doubt some of this hysteria and falsehood comes, in part, from Hillary Clinton.  Her use of the word "white" to describe voters Obama could not persuade helped this case, as did her widely-spread double-take on his claims of being a Christian. 

But the bottom line remains the same: in 2008, there exists a significant swing vote among the general electorate who won't vote for Obama because he is black and his name seems un-American.

Columnist Mark Shields advises Obama to appear in a Christian Church on Saturday and Sunday on every weekend between now and Election Day to combat this challenge.  It's pretty good tactical advice, but is it a successful strategy?

If I could advise the Obama campaign, my advice would to be have Obama follow the Mark Warner strategy in Virginia.  Endorse a NASCAR driver.  Eat BBQ.  Not in a gratuitous way - duh.  Obama's strength in person and in the campaign trail is that he is the real deal. 

A dyed-in-the-wool New Hampshire Republican provides a clue in explaining his support for Obama this way to me: "Obama is middle of the road."  Granted this Republican has inside information on the workings of the Obama family, but his message of assurance rings a significant and important bell in the general election. 

"The Obamas are like you and me," he seemed to say.  "They think about whether their kids should get a dog."

And illuminating this kind of detail -- dogs, birthday parties, and homework -- is what will make the difference for Obama in the general election.

For in 2008, the fact is that the daily life of African Americans (or anyone of color) remains unknown to far too many white Americans. It's far too easy to imagine, quietly or otherwise, an imagined other-life to Americans with a different skin color.  Yes, going to Christian churches will help in the election, but will matter is something far broader.  Call it the Oprah moment.

The Oprah moment is the place where race disappears and other factors -- gender, education, experience -- become more important. Throughout the general election, Obama is going to have to create Oprah moments, where white voters who might otherwise be easily persuaded to fear his candidacy, instead find a lifeline to Obama that is attractive, true, and comforting.

Surely the Obama family itself is Door Number One in this situation.  As I've told people from June 2007 onwards, they are the kind of people you want in your backyard when you are barbecuing: ordinary, funny, smart, kid-focused, and happy to be among a large group without being the center of attention.

Door Number Two rests with Warner strategy.  Put Obama into the heart of the white, working class.  No big speeches.  Just engage, listen, and quietly tell your story.  Let them know you get it.

Door Number Three is more complicated, but pretty inviting.  In this case, it involves reaching out to the "routers" for working white America.  Larry, the Cable Guy, is one person with whom to start.  Or Rascal Flatts.  These overtures should be quiet.  Small.  No big-deal. Aim to lower the temperature and suggest an alternative.

The irony is this:  while Republicans are in complete political disarray, the fact remains that their top-of-the-ticket candidate is a well-known, relatively-reliable US Senator.  For Democrats, the opposite is true.  The party is totally solid and well-positioned to do very, very well in the 2008 Elections, but their presumptive nominee remains largely unknown and undefined.  Worse still, his very presence plays to the worst fears and concerns among an important bloc of Democratic voters.

Race is alive and well, sadly, in the 2008 Presidential campaign. Let's hope Senator Clinton recognizes that her legacy rests with ensuring at least one vexing discrimination from the 20th century -- in this case, race -- disappears in the early part of the next century. It will pave the way to guaranteeing that a capable female candidate can win the White House this century without relying on the surname of her husband, the former President.

"You Know I Never Give Up"

Riding home tonight from a town meeting in New Hampshire, over country roads as beautiful as those found in West Virginia, I heard Hillary Clinton's sad call to arms on the radio -- "You will never quit, and I won't, either -- and wondered, why?

Although she is behind in every category that matters -- popular vote, pledged delegates, super delegates, states won -- Hillary Clinton insists the fight for the Democratic nomination isn't over, that the fight must continue until a nominee is clearly chosen.  At this point, it's my view that she will fight until the Democratic convention in Denver.  The kind of phrases we heard tonight from Senator Clinton -- e.g., never give up, never quit -- suggest that until the nomination for Barack Obama is signed, sealed, and delivered, Hillary Clinton will insist on fighting for the nomination.

What causes someone to insist that battlin' and battlin' is the normal course of behavior for a human being?  By any rationale, most politicians would have long ago ceded this contest.  Hillary Clinton claims her durability and persistence shows wisdom.  I would suggest that the willingness to take a punch, give a punch, and move on to the next round does not seem like a winning strategy to me, let alone an approach to good government, and certainly nothing that approaches wisdom.

Instead, I would suggest that the space of embattlement is one that Hillary Clinton has, sadly, known best in her public and (perhaps) private life.  Whether you consider Bill Clinton's affairs, Whitewater, the health care debacle, the Impeachment hearings, or the Iraq War vote, Hillary Clinton's public career has largely been marked by defensive reaction.  Battlin' is what she knows best, and so that's what she is doing right now.

It's a sad state of affairs.  With both her campaign for President in 2007-2008 and her campaign for health care reform in 1992-94, Hillary Clinton had the chance to frame the debate favorably.  She failed to do so in either case.  In fact, in both situations, she responded better once others had defined the debate.  In addition to calling into question her leadership skills, such a dynamic suggests that a positive outcome for Democrats in 2008 is in jeopardy. 

I have no doubt Senator Clinton loves this country and genuinely believes she would serve it well as President.  But a public record of great defense, and little to no offense, hardly qualifies someone for the challenges which await whomever will occupy the White House in late January 2009.  Worse, for Democrats, it suggests that scorched earth policy awaits the Party until Denver when the votes finally will be counted for good.

Mud Season

The further north a person travels in New England during the months of late March and April, particularly if that travel occurs away from the interstates and city highways, the closer a person comes to discovering first-hand the fifth season of this region -- mud season.

It's an odd and quiet time.  Town roads buckle and twist with frost heaves, forcing drivers to slow their speed and negotiate passage of a pitted, potted road like some stunt driver twisting his car thru a series of orange cones on a racetrack.  The landscape, once covered in beautiful snow, gives up this beautiful blanket slowly.  Mud and dirt appear instead in dark, uninviting patches.  All matter of things abandoned in winter -- toys, tires, small tools -- re-appear, reminding the homeowner of the past, of almost forgotten transgressions.

The weather dips and yaws from cold to warm, to cold again.  It's the kind of weather which makes the sap run on maple trees, but beyond that, it's hard to see much else good about mud season.  My coldest runs of the year occur in mud season.  On these days the ground is frozen and cold, and the wind blows cold across the last remnants of snow.  It's like running on an open ice-box.  The air temperature might read 40 degrees or more -- too warm for the jackets and hats and thick running tights that can make a run in less than ten degrees seem pleasant -- but it feels far worse because of the hard cold earth beneath. 

On the political front, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination this year did not end in February as it typically has done. Instead of respite for candidates, voters, and staffs after a long primary fight, an entirely new season unfolded in the primary cycle in the months of March and April.  It became a season filled with many of the same things found in rural northern New England at the same time of year -- mud everywhere, twisted roads almost impossible to negotiate, and a cold unforgiving landscape that seems determined not to yield to the sweet promise of a warm Spring.

Today we reach the end of that difficult season.  Voters in Illinois and North Carolina vote in their primaries today, and unless the polls are very wrong, I think we will this race effectively end tonight. Although Hillary Clinton will win in Indiana, the closeness of that contest combined with what will be a modest but sure victory for Obama in North Carolina will mean the race for the delegates is almost over. After today, Obama will need only 175 delegates to win the Democratic nomination -- or less than 9 percent of the total of 2,025 delegates. 

Looking over the remaining contests where 220 or so delegates exist, and assuming a rough 50-50 split between Clinton and Obama, Obama will enter June with less than 75 delegates needed to win the contest.  And with Obama ahead in the popular vote, and super delegates continue to endorse him at a rate of 2:1 or better since March, it's very easy to see that worst of mud season is over after today. 

By all accounts, after today, Barack Obama should be on a track that leads to the Democratic nomination.

Unfortunately, Spring can also bring tornadoes and other unexpected disasters from the sky, and there's every bit of promise that team Clinton will do their utmost to darken the sky for the Democratic Party in the weeks ahead.  Inflated by the fun of throwing mud and buoyed by results that come from appealing to the reptilian side of voters, the cattle car led by Hillary Clinton might well continue the journey all the way to Denver.  Whether the trio from Arkansas become a sideshow or the show remains to be seen, but it depends in large part on the willingness of super delegates and other party leaders to look ahead in the calendar to the real fight that awaits in a very short general election season from late August to early November 2008.

By the time voters go to the polls for the last time in this election cycle, frost will once again be on the ground.  Assuming wisdom and common sense prevail, it will be new political ground turned over that awaits, and not a hangover from an odd and bitter mud season.