John Sununu's has a dream about achieving victory on Election Night in November 2008 that ain't so crazy. In fact, it's about 40% realized already.
First, Sununu needs a Republican Presidential nominee with a strong, positive identity in the Granite State. Someone who could appeal to the entire base of the Party, but also (and most importantly) attract the kind of Independents who will vote for Governor Lynch again this year. WIth McCain firmly and ably in that role, Sununu already achieved at least one-third of his goal.
Second, Sununu needed Jean Shaheen not only to be his opponent in the general election, but to be the only Democratic candidate in the race for a very long time. The longer he could describe the race as "The Return of Sununu v. Shaheen," the better in terms of fundraising and support by Republican Party loyalists.
It's also important for Sununu to have only Jean Shaheen in his sights because it means that Sununu's abysmal voting record will not be the deciding factor in the race. This race will come down to personality, not policy positions, and a drawn-out Sununu v. Shaheen race favors the incumbent Senator for several reasons in the personality department.
First, Jean Shaheen has not used the intervening six years to add anything new to her identify for Granite State voters. Voters still imagine her as she was six years ago: a weak Governor who did nothing on education and vetoed an income tax. Trapped in the politics of the late 1990s, and unable to point to anything she has meaningfully done since leaving political life (sorry, working at Harvard will not score points among either lunch-pail Democrats or latte-drinking Democrats), Shaheen has unwittingly put herself into a retro corner that makes her seem old and square, and uncomfortably familiar.
Shaheen also cannot embrace the change message of the Democratic Party nationally (which will be the message, regardless of whether Clinton or Obama are the nominee). In addition to not offering anything new or exciting about herself since we last saw her in 2002, Jeanne Shaheen was an incredible hawk on the Iraq War in 2002. Her positions then went to the right of even Hillary Clinton. She even supported the Bush tax cuts!
Finally, Jean Shaheen -- who is a lovely person -- finds herself outmatched by John Sununu on the campaign trail. Make no mistake, John Sununu is no Bobby Jindal (google that name if you want to know who will be the Republican nominee for President sometime in the next 10 years), but he's smart, thoughtful, and far more principled that Shaheen when it comes to appearing in front of voters. Neither would win American Idol, but my gut says Sununu wins in the YouTube likeability contest.
The news this weekend that HIllary Clinton intends to fight for the Democratic nomination until the bitter end, no matter what the cost to the Democratic party, ought to put a huge smile on the face of John Sununu, no matter the outcome.
First, if HIllary manages to overcome every obstacle possible, and somehow win
arm-wrestle the nomination from Barack Obama, Sununu realizes his dream
in terms of a top-of-the-ticket opponent. Can you imagine the glee in
Sununu's voice as he proclaims the following in state fair after state
fair across New Hampshire late this summer and early fall?
"Hi, my name is John Sununu, and I'm running against Hillary Clinton and Jean Shaheen."
Game over. The election is Sununu's to lose.
And even if HIllary loses the nomination, the bitter-end fight which she so lustily promotes can only serve to help Sununu. First, it keeps Hillary's name -- and all of the negatives which go with it -- closely aligned to the top of the ticket in the Democratic Party.
Second, her tactics tarnish the Party itself. While it's certainly true that the win-at-all-costs strategy and mentality of the Clintons and their donors/strategists/staff is exactly what the country does NOT need now, the political reality is this tactic does not distinguish the Clintons or the Democrats from the current White House occupant, and thus makes McCain seem like a reasonable alternative to both.
Granite State Independents, faced with a choice between the Democratic devil they know (Clinton), and the Republican they think might be a devil (or at least, devilish), will choose the latter everytime.
Six months ago, everyone thought John Sununu was politically dead. Thanks to Hillary Clinton, his chances are better than ever.