PeterGlenshaw.com

Three Cheers for Dodd & Obama

I was in the middle of an early-morning meeting today when the following email came into my laptop:

Message
From: Chris Dodd   
Subject:  Barack Obama for President

Oh yeah, I smiled.

I smiled even more in the latter part of the afternoon, when I had a chance to see Senator Dodd's remarks in their entirety on YouTube.

You can read the text of both Senator Dodd's and Senator Obama's remarks here.  Their eloquence and thoughtfulness is distinctive, and welcome.

Regular readers of this blog know that Senators Dodd and Obama were my top choices for the Democratic nomination.  I won't repeat the arguments here about their worthiness, except to say that the dignity of today's endorsement by Senator Dodd underscored his fitness for service beyond his current role as a senior Senator from Connecticut. 

I think it's noteworthy not only that Dodd was the first of the 2008 Democratic Presidential candidates to endorse a fellow candidate, but also that Obama had this to say about Senator Dodd:

"...he [Senator Dodd] also has that rare ability to disagree without being disagreeable....He conducted his campaign for President with that same character. He resisted the cheap and easy shots, and elevated the debate with important ideas about how to address the great challenges we face."

Amen.

All too often, political tactics on both the sides of the aisle have sunk to the lowest form.  Eager for victory, but unaware or uncaring of the deeper, unfavorable impression such tactics create for politics writ large, the entrenched practitioners of politics in Washington have found themselves -- largely as a result of the Obama campaign -- wondering which side is up.

The strength of the Obama campaign has less to do with oratory or policy than many commentators suggest.  Rather, I would contend that attraction for many, including Senator Dodd, lies in Obama's desire to make politics matter in real and authentic ways to everyone, not just Washington insiders. 

And herein lies the secret.  A few weekends ago, late on a Saturday night, Senator Dodd was kind enough to give me a quick call to say thanks. 

He could have been, and maybe should have been, asleep or doing something far more important than calling me. 

But he wasn't.  Politics is not just the act of getting votes and placing votes.  It's also the act of reaching out and communicating and persuading voters.  Senator Dodd could have stayed on the sidelines in this primary race.  He did not have to call a minor-league activist in New Hampshire.  But he chose otherwise, and this is the politics that matters.  The politics that rejects cynicism and instead embraces....hope. 

Yupper.

That real and powerful thing which just might make our world better.

Obama and Dodd.  Now, that's a welcome team and a welcome approach to politics.

Hillary Clinton: The Wheels Come Off the Bus

When my kids were a lot younger, one of their favorite songs was "The Wheels on the Bus."

"The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round....the wheels on the bus go round and round, all day long."

And it's true, the wheels on the bus do go round and round.  Except, of course, when you're losing.

Then it's something quite different, and what we've seen in the past few days are the wheels coming off the bus of the Clinton campaign.

As a Democrat (and as an amateur athlete and coach), I know all too well the signs of loss and internal collapse.  Teammates yell and fight with one another.  Mistakes, even tragedies, occur.  Leadership (in this case, the candidate) moves in one direction, then another direction, all in the space of few days.  Money woes that were once private become all too public.  It's heartbreaking.  It's sudden.  It's very real.

Here is how the wheels are coming off the Clinton bus in late February 2008.

*Money problems.  The Clinton campaign ended last month in debt, some $7.6M in the red.

*More money problems.   The New York Times reports that small business owners in Clinton's adopted home state of New York aren't getting paid by the campaign. 

*In the debate on Thursday, Hillary Clinton closes with a wonderful statement that suggests that her time in this campaign is marked, but the fight worthwhile.  24 hours later, she pulls the remark.

*Super-delegates begin to defect.

*Staff begin to fight.  Go home early.  And chat to the press.

*Donors begin to fight.  Go home early.  And chat to the press.

*The "smart" people from the "smart" magazine from your adopted home state (aka, the political team at the The New Yorker) says the Clinton campaign is over.

It's a tough situation.  As Mark Shields from the Lehrer Report put it last week, when a candidate is winning primary after primary, "the beer is colder, the women are prettier, and all of the world seems to be smiling at you."

All of Clinton's challenges came together yesterday afternoon when she held a press conference after a rally in Ohio in order to rip into a couple of Obama mailings.  Gone was the warm, smiling, "happy to be here with Barack" facade of 48 hours earlier.  Instead, we saw a candidate in full fury, fuming and fusing over a couple of mailings that accurately but pointedly spell-out problems with her healthcare plan and her support for NAFTA.

Mild stuff compared to the smear (and frankly, the lie) found in a Clinton mailer delivered in New Hampshire and Nevada, saying that Obama wasn't reliable on the issue of choice.  You can see that mailer and the fully story about it here.

And here's why this "outrage" by Hillary Clinton in the waning days of her campaign is nothing but a tempest in a wee teapot. 

The Clinton mailer in New Hampshire was delivered out-of-the-blue, and on the day before the Primary itself.  Its impact was reinforced by an email from half-a-dozen female Democratic elected officials and other party leaders.  That mailer and email, coupled with whatever emotional moment Hillary had on Monday, caused women voters to abandon Obama in the last 24 hours of the New Hampshire primary.  After the victory, Hillary Clinton claimed she found her voice.

Fast forward two months.  Obama has won 11 primaries and caucuses in a row, and has an absolute lead in terms of delegates, money, and momentum.  Clinton is losing every voting group, save older women.  The campaign is short of everything it needs to win.

And so, in moments like this, when the campaign is failing, a candidate just loses it.  Which is what happened to Hillary Clinton yesterday afternoon.

Never mind that the Obama mailer has been used in previous state primaries and was delivered more than a week before the primary in Ohio.  Never mind that there is nothing new, inaccurate, or surprising about the mailer.

All that Hillary Clinton had to do was step in front of the microphone, wave the mailers, and say, "I'm mad as hell and I am not going to take it any longer."

Which she did. 

Unfortunately, it was another signal that the wheels are coming off the Clinton 2008 bus.

Clinton's Ugly Loss

Yesterday evening was an ugly night for Hillary Clinton, not simply because Obama's Wisconsin and Hawaii victories took him to 10-0 in caucus and primary victories since Super Tuesday, gave him a solid lead of 100-150 delegates (pledged and total), and showed Obama beating or drawing even with Clinton in every demographic group (race, income, education, age, etc.) except white women over 60 years of age.

It was an ugly night for Clinton because the previous week, she and her team of desperate supporters threw everything in Clinton kitchen of dirty political tricks at Obama, including trash in the garbage can, and none of it worked.  The resulting mess will take weeks for clean, and underscores the need for Hillary Clinton to exit this race now -- before the Texas and Ohio primaries -- while she still has a chance to salvage some national goodwill.

*The Clintons said Wisconsin did not matter.  Then they re-entered the state, saying it did.

*They let Bill out of the doghouse again, even if it meant he was belligerent and confrontational to an Obama supporter.

*Last week, like the witch in the Wizard of Oz ("Surrender Dorothy"), Harold Ickes was sent out to announce to say that Clinton would have it wrapped by June ("Surrender Obama").

*Last week, after signing an agreement earlier in the year to not participate in either the Michigan or Florida primaries, the Clintons began asking that those primaries, which were "victories" for Senator Clinton, be included in the nomination totals. 

*They even launched a website to get Florida and Michigan included.

*The same website also underscored Clinton's desire to hold onto every superdelegate possible (John Lewis, can you hear me now?), and insist that party insiders annoint appoint vote for the nominee without considering the will of the voters.

*Clinton even said last week that she would go after Obama's pledged delegates, and try to get them to switch their votes before the nomination.

*And then, after adopting Obama's phrases like "Fired Up" were adopted by Hillary, she and her team went all out in the 48 hours before Wisconsin to claim that the Senator from Illinois was a card-carrying plagiarist. 

So much for offering solutions.

Instead, the Clintons focused on doing everything possible to tear Obama apart.  The seven days since the Potomac primaries has been a week of desperation and divisiveness on the part of the Clintons. Instead of campaigning on hope and the future, the Clintons looked into the rearview mirror and urged voters to embrace fear.

Which is why, while watching the Democratic primary returns from Wisconsin last night, I was struck with its utter unexpectedness. Never, at least in my lifetime, had I seen a new candidate on the national political scene survive thrive on the beat-down that comes from establishment politics and docile mainstream media. 

The politics of fear, and fear particularly of the future, has been a dominant part of American political culture for generations.  Bush himself practiced the dark art of politics exceedingly well over the last eight years, but it's been a place to go for countless politicians, Republican and Democrat (remember LBJ's mushroom cloud ad in 1964) for as I long as I can remember.  Obama has now made the practice of politics of fear a wedge issue in the 21st century. 

Which brings us to Hillary Clinton's future.  I believe the sooner she exits this race, the better it is for her reputation and for the Democratic Party.  Like a Kennedy in 1980 who could not imagine that defeat was possible, Hillary Clinton must begin to realize that she will be beaten by Barack Obama in the Democratic primary race of 2008.

A Clinton nomination victory in 2008 relies unbelievable math: better than 2-1 victories in Ohio and Texas and Pennsylvania, and the support of nearly every remaining super delegate.  It's a path to victory that is not only near-impossible, but also guaranteed to create an ugly mess within the Party and among the electorate.  As I wrote last week to the former Chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, "Given where she is today, for Senator Clinton to achieve 60% margins of victory [in the remaining primaries] she has to go negative in a major way to reverse the Obama momentum."

Hillary Clinton went negative in a major way this past week.  She went ugly, and it failed miserably.

Two days ago, Max Brantly, a former political columnist with the Arkansas Times and a Clinton supporter, gave Hillary Clinton advice which ought be heeded. 

Simply put, "it's over."

John Lewis's Choice

The news the Congressman John Lewis of Georgia has decided to endorse Senator Barack Obama instead of Senator Hillary Clinton signals a new chapter in the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination.

Lewis, after all, is the pre-eminent Civil Rights veteran in Congress today, and one of the most stalwart supporters (and early endorsees) of Senator Clinton.

At least until last night.

Before diving into the specifics and implications of Lewis's endorsement today, let's think for a moment about Congressman Lewis and the choices he has made.  More than 43 years ago, a very young John Lewis crossed the Edmund Pettus bridge in Selma, Alabama, along with civil rights leaders, including Martin Luther King, Jr.  Halfway across the bridge, they met Alabama state troopers, who beat Lewis and the other protesters.  Lewis suffered a fractured skull, but his injuries and the injustice of that day reverberated around the world.  His courage and sacrifice helped to lead to passage of the 1965 Civil Rights Act.

The courage required of John Lewis to cross Pettus Bridge is almost unimaginable.  Think of yourself -- would you walk directly into the area where people, maybe even police, would hurt and injure you for the beliefs you hold dear?

This is the ultimate test of courage, and faith in our democracy. This might sound hokey -- but what the heck -- every time I step into a voting booth, I think about the sacrifices made in Gettysburg, PA.  Or at the Battle of Bulge. Or at Pettus Bridge.   I can't help but think of those who gave their lives for our democracy.  As I age, as I understand a bit more what sacrifice really means.  I think about the lives given in defense of our democracy. 

So, when I think about Congressman Lewis, and his choice for President in 2008, it's the kind of decision which resonates in a powerful way.

Political expediency does not lie at the heart of Lewis's calculus. There's something much deeper, more meaningful than who is up and who is down.

It's a powerful choice, and one that will have an important impact on this race.

Hillary Clinton Needs to Exit

It's time for Senator Hillary Clinton to exit the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.  For the good of the Democratic Party and for the nation, she needs to suspend her campaign now.  And I mean now, before the primaries in Ohio, Texas, or Pennsylvania.  Here's why.

1) Exit polls show she commands less and less of the Democratic electorate.  Until this past weekend, she commanded the attention of older, white female voters and Hispanic voters only.  Obama wins every other demographic: White men, African Americans, Union households, Catholics, and households earning  less than $50k per year.  Hillary Clinton simply cannot command enough people in the general election to win.  Her core supporters are growing narrower and narrower, and the sooner she realizes that unfortunate fact, the better for everyone.

2) She is losing primaries and caucuses all over the nation...and she is losing badly.  The margins of victory in the last week for Obama are huge: ME (60%-40%), DC (75-25), VA (64-36), MD (62-35), WA (68-31), LA (57-36), and NE (68-32).  Yes, some of these contests have significant African American populations, but many of the biggest states have broad demographics, including Maine, Maryland, and Virginia. 

3) Republicans will unite strongly against a Clinton nomination. Many commentators on the Right have said that they wish for Clinton to be the nominee.  But Obama?  It's a much tougher race.  Republicans will have to fight age (71 years v. 46 years) and the war on Iraq (yes v. no), and change versus more-of-the-same. 

4) The Democratic Party needs to unite behind a leader, now.  I know the temptation that Clinton must feel.  Just one more primary -- come on, Texas....come on, Pennsylvania....Ohio, my BFF.  But it's an illusion.  By hanging onto to another month, when the trends clearly suggest that the race is over, Hillary Clinton threatens to split the party at the expense of her own ambition for the Presidency.

February is the shortest month of the year, but it's proving to be the longest for Senator Clinton.  The remaining primaries this month include Wisconsin and Hawaii (both of which should go for Obama), and according to MSNBC analysis from a few minutes ago, Hillary Clinton needs to win 60% of the vote in the remaining post-February primaries to secure the nomination. 

It's over.  Hillary Clinton fought hard, but the race is done.  Time to ring the bell and say goodbye. 

Hillary Clinton Didn't Say That, Did She?

The New York Times carried a story a few months ago about how politicians on both sides of the aisle mis-speak, sometimes with disastrous consequences, when they are tired.  Goodness knows, the last thing I need at the end of a long day (such as today, which began at 6:15am and will end after 11pm) is a microphone in my face.  I'm liable to say anything.

But...

...when the issue is your future in the remaining Democratic primaries, even I might speak more thoughtfully than Senator Clinton did today.  Here is what she said about the defeats her campaign suffered over this past weekend.

According to CNN, Clinton "argued that caucuses are 'primarily dominated by activists' and that 'they don't represent the electorate, we know that.'"

What?

Are you kidding me?  Try telling the story that caucuses somehow don't represent the electorate to my friend from Washington State.  I love this guy (known him since college more than 20 years ago), but he is not at all political and my guess (could be wrong here) is that my politics are probably more liberal than his.

That said, here is what he said about the Washington State caucuses:

Peter

I wanted to let you know that [my wife] and I caucused for Obama this weekend. It was an exciting event. The school parking lot was overflowing as we arrived. The coordinator said that he had expected about 150 people and we had, by my estimate, about 750 folks jammed into the cafeteria. Our local precinct went over almost 3:1 for Obama, and the state (as you I am sure know) went about 2:1 in his favor. It was our first caucus and I have to say it was indeed a curious event, but the best part was to see friends and neighbors all "fired up" about winning in the fall.

[my friend]

Need another report from the electorate, Senator Clinton?  Try this one from Maine, the coastal state to vote Obama over the weekend.

It's all good -- 70-30 for Obama in Cape Elizabeth where we live.  I got to give the speech for Obama at our caucus, which was fun.  We had nearly 800 people at the caucus, compared to 300 in 2004, and that increased turnout -- 2 to 4x 2004 turnout -- happened everywhere in Maine, despite the snow today.  Cape, by the way, used to be a solidly Republican town -- but in a sign of these times, there were only 100 people at the Republican caucus last week -- we had nearly that # of absentee ballots for the Dem caucus.  Obama won practically every town in the state; not bad for a state Hillary hoped to win (this is a state w/ one of the lowest %'s of college grads in the country, less than 1% black, and remains pretty poor, ethnic, working class) and one which she worked very hard, she threw 20 staffers in here this week and she and Bill and Chelsea hit the state hard -- we probably got 5 robocalls from her just in the last 48 hours.  Given what it going to happen Tuesday, this is getting very interesting.  I expect the polls in Texas and Ohio and PA to shift significantly by the end of the week.  As we say here in Maine: Obamarama!

Indeed. 

It's not clear that Senator Clinton understands the message from these reports.  Ordinary voters are choosing Senator Obama with enthusiasm.  It's not just the activists.  Or the African Americans. Or the well-educated.  It's the rest of us, who understand (as my brother from one of Potomac primaries put it) that "if you want change, vote for Obama, not Clinton." 

A Tie on Super Tuesday

Back in the day -- when I was in the 7th and 8th grade, riding a bus an hour each way from home to school (a Catholic school, no less) -- one of my classmates was a huge fan of boxing. 

Joe Antonio, where are you?

From Joe, I learned a thing or two about the fight game, and one of the key lessons was how to defeat a champion.  Assuming he couldn't land a knockout punch or secure a technical knockout, the contender had only to appear as good as the champion to win a fight.  Compete toe-to-toe over 15 rounds, and a contender might just take the crown away from a champion in the eyes of the judges.

In the aftermath of Super Tuesday, I think it's fair to say Barack Obama tied Senator Clinton (and maybe did better). 

Popular vote?  Yup, a tie (Obama had 7,369,798 votes, or 48.45% of the vote; Clinton had 7,427,700 votes, or 48.83%).

Number of states won?  Obama led here, 13 to 8 states.

Money?  Obama raised $32M in January 2008, Clinton just $13.5M.  And she loaned her campaign $5M.  And then, in the immediate aftermath of Super Tuesday -- Clinton raised $4M, and Obama raised $7.2M.

Delegates?  There are a lot of counts out there, but most show a Obama with a lead or near draw.  The Obama people says it's in their favor, 847-834.  NBC says 840-830, Obama in the lead.  CNN calls it 790-767 for Clinton.  You decide, but my gut says "tie."

Taking the fight metaphor a step further, it's interesting to note how weak the competition has been for Senator Clinton in the past.  Her first Senate race in 2000 was against former Congressman Rick Lazio, a late replacement for Rudy Guliani, whom she easily defeated 55-43%. Her next Senate opponent was even weaker, and Clinton ultimately won 67-31%. 

The opposite has been the case for Senator Obama.  He came to the Senate after an incredibly difficult race for the Democratic nomination in Illinois.  Before that, he actually lost a race -- this time, in 2000 against a Democratic incumbent, Bobby Rush, for a seat in the US House of Representatives.

So, one of them knows what it likes to take on the chin (Obama) and the other has less experience (Clinton). 

What a minute, you might say.  Didn't Hillary take it on the chin for nearly a decade?  Didn't the vast right-wing conspiracy, in fact, specifically and repeatedly and unfairly target Hillary Clinton during the 1990s?

Yes.  Yes, and Yes. 

But was she running for office then?  Was she the candidate?

The fact is, in the fight for the Democratic nomination in 2008, Hillary Clinton is the presumed champion, having led in polls both nationwide and key states for many months, and Obama is the key challenger.  And yet, two days ago, in state after state, Obama demonstrated the kind of strength from a challenger that suggests that he ought to be the true champion of the Democratic Party in 2008. 

It might take a few more rounds to make this truth apparent, but in my mind, the tie that Barack Obama secured on Super Tuesday -- on a night when Hillary Clinton thought she would deliver the knock-out punch -- said all that needs to be said.

Obama in '08.

Theo Epstein's Good Advice

Welcome to Super Week.  It begins tonight when all of New England and the Northeast (and the rest of the country) watch what I should be a pretty good Super Bowl game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.  I think the Patriots will take it, but expect the Giants to perform better than you might expect. 

It's then onto Super Tuesday and the many primaries and caucuses scheduled for that day.  A Washington Post - ABC News poll released today suggest the Obama and Clinton are essentially tied among Democratic voters.  While some political writers suggest that Super Tuesday amounts to a national primary, the fact remains that 24 very different states will vote individually on Tuesday.  I think Clinton will win a majority of the delegates at stake on Tuesday, especially if she captures California.  But Obama will do particularly well in the middle of the country and the South, leaving the contest very much undecided after Tuesday.  Obama will probably do surprisingly well in the DC-MD-VA primary a few days later, and I think this means the Democratic primary race (cue Chris Berman voice) could....go....all....the.....way.  Or at least until Tuesday, March 4th, when 444 delegates are at stake, with Ohio and Texas dominating the primary that day. 

As we hit Super Week in New England, I thought it might be useful to share an email I got from a friend of a friend about his encounter yesterday with Theo Epstein, General Manager of the Boston Red Sox and supporter of one of the two remaining candidates for the Democratic nomination (read ahead to find out who Theo supports!).   

The dynamics of winning and losing are a big part of the Democratic primary, as they are of professional sports.  Winning and losing is also an important dynamic to youth sports.  My new-found friend coached a Little League baseball team that last year went 0-15.  I'm currently coach a youth basketball team that is 1-15.  When it's the closing minutes of a game and we're down 40-5, the audacity of hope never seems more alive to me than when I'm urging my guys to finish out the game as best they can.

Here's the email, and enjoy the Super week ahead.

Dear Little League Players, Parents and Fans,

I was going to wait until after the Super Bowl to think about next season but something happened this morning that changed my plans.

Barack Obama’s campaign was using the Middle East Restaurant as a staging area for canvassing Cambridge.  I was there this morning with a couple of dozen volunteers when a slightly familiar looking guy walked up to me and says “Hi, I’m Theo Epstein and I can see by your hat that you’re supporting the Red Sox and Barack Obama.”  For a moment I was speechless.  My head was all about politics and suddenly I’m thinking Red Sox!  Then Theo just brought it all together, “The next time we win a World Series I want to meet President Obama in the Rose Garden”. 

We talked about baseball and politics.  Position player vs. pitchers.  Who will be on the ticket as VP.  The usual stuff.  Finally, I told him about our less than perfect season last year in West Cambridge.   I lowered my voice and pleaded, “But, Theo what would you do?”  He thought for a moment and then said, “Change the name of the team to the Pirates”.

The man is a genius. 

So on the eve of the Super Bowl and Super Tuesday I am proud to announce the new, improved West Cambridge (formerly known as the White Sox) Pirates. Theo wishes us the best of luck next season.

Have a Super week,

Coach Harry