First, let me apologize for the radio (er, blog) silence over the past few days. As you might expect with the NH primary upon us, I had a lot to share. A whole lot. But, as a result of some problems involving the site (all my fault), I was not able to post for the past several days. So, look for a whole lot of postings over the next few days. I gotta backlog of thoughts to share.
It's late as I write, so let me start with the obvious and simple observation: namely, the ABC vote in the New Hampshire primary of 2008. The ABC vote?
Anybody But Clinton.....
Looking at the aggregate vote from the Granite State yesterday, it's clear that 60% of New Hampshire voters who took a Democratic ballot wanted someone other than the Junior Senator from New York. The anticipated withdrawal of Governor Bill Richardson provide an opportunity for that ABC vote to materialize more clearly. It's my guess that it will coalesce around a single candidate, and my guess is that Obama will be the main beneficiary of the ABC vote in the coming weeks.
The ABC vote is the one big, big issue that the Clinton camp has yet to address seriously. Husband Bill never got beyond the low 40s in terms of support in either of his Presidential campaigns, and the early evidence suggests that Hillary can only count on similar anemic level of support, too. All of which puts pressure now of John Edwards to reconsider his 50-state campaign strategy. The strategy memo might read, "go ahead and compete in Nevada and South Carolina (the latter which you won in 2004), but if neither state can advance your chances, look for plenty of pundits and insiders to ask you, this thoughtful, passionate candidate from North Carolina, to step aside."
The fact is, at least half or more of the Democrat voters simply do not like Senator Clinton and do not want her to become President. I count myself among those voters and the intensity of their feelings is surprising, real, and not to be dismissed. Moreover, it's clear in the 24 hours after New Hampshire, that Barack Obama is no Howard Dean. He's already earned the endorsement of the two biggest unions in Nevada and seems well-positioned in South Carolina, too. Barack Obama is the real deal, and this race is far closer than anyone realizes.
It's also clear that a generational gap has emerged in the Democratic Party in 2008. The Old Guarde is backing the nostalgic choice, Senator Clinton. But the New Guarde -- who are comprised of young voters, Dean supporters, Silicon Valley & Wall Street leaders, and true Independents in the Democratic Party -- are going in a different direction. There is a lot more to this split than meets the eye. It's akin to the split in the Republican Party in the late 1970s when Reagan and the Goldwater-inspired conservatives took back their party from the Washington establishment.
The next few weeks, and perhaps even months, will be fascinating. Hang onto your hat!
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