PeterGlenshaw.com

Dodd Scores: Who Notices?

The holiday season means many things.  Unfortunately, over the past few years for me, it's meant less attention than usual on the Christmas holiday.  It's the height of budget season for the Lyme School Board, which means we're meeting every one to two weeks from mid-November until the holiday.  And then, once we vote the budget, we have to scramble to prepare for our presentation to the budget committee.  That meeting usually happens right after the New Year, so it's a busy, busy season.

Did I mention I am also coaching a boys basketball team this year?

So I understand it's easy to get distracted.  Over the past few years, I find myself shopping for presents on the last few days before Christmas.  The holiday arrives and I come to it breathless, sometimes hardly aware of it amidst all of the other activities.

It's less easy to understand the way in which the mainstream press gets distracted during this Presidential campaign.  Finally, after months of puff-pieces about Senator Clinton and her inevitable road to the Democratic nomination, the press has woken up and begun to notice her incredible vulnerabilities.

The sad thing, from my perspective, lies in how the clamoring press -- who are so busy following one another -- miss the really big and significant stories.  Over the past two weeks, the press spent an enormous amount of ink writing about Obama's surge, Edwards's quiet strength, and Clinton's struggles.  I don't doubt the accuracy or relevance of any of these trends. 

But at a time when the Democratic Congress has been widely (and fairly) condemned for its acquiescence to the George Bush (witness the latest budget vote), which Democratic Presidential candidate caused the ONLY setback for President Bush in the last two weeks?

Senator Dodd.

For all of attention paid by this same press to the television advertising, celebrity surrogates, and talking points, precious little attention was focused on the one Presidential candidate to successfully challenge both the Bush administration and the weak Democratic leadership in the Congress. 

Senator Dodd.

Here's a quick recap of what took place.  On December 17th, less than a week ago, Chris Dodd flew back from Iowa to DC in order to begin a filibuster against the terrible FISA bill.  I wrote about this earlier, but the bottom line of this bill is that it would grant retro-active immunity to telecommunication companies who gave information to the Bush administration without the authorization of the FISA court.  In short form, they broke the law and the Bush administration wants to reward their so-called patriotism with immunity. 

The really sad part of this recent battle is that no less a person than Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) tried to allow this provision to become law.  Dodd had requested this bill be held back (a courtesy in the Senate), but at the last minute, Reid tried to ram through the bill.  Dodd saw the ploy for what it was, and hurried back.

Together with the support of Democracy for America, Dodd reached out to supporters across the United States and urged them to contact Senator Reid and share their disapproval of his actions.

Within a few hours, more than 3,000 activists contacted Reid's office and let him know exactly how they felt about this bill.  By 10pm or so on the night of Dec. 17th, Reid had withdrawn the bill.  As one blogger put it,

Bottom Line: Reid obviously wanted the process of passing what Bush wanted to be an easy and quiet one. If Dodd and the others hadn't stood their ground, that's what would have happened today. Chalk one up for the people....I think we should all also contact our presidential candidates from the Senate, who didn't think it was important enough to be at their jobs today, to express our disgust: Senators Clinton, Obama and Biden, where were you?

So there it is.  Dodd goes to Washington, stops Bush (and Reid), and goes back to Iowa, where polls show him way behind.

Life is not always fair.  There's nothing new in that view (Ecclesiastes 9:11, "The race is not to the swift and the battle is not to the warriors, and neither is bread to the wise nor wealth to the discerning nor favor to men of ability; for time and chance overtake them all."). 

But, even today, that wisdom is hard to take.  Despite running what I think of as a near-perfect campaign, Dodd is way behind.

So it's in times like these that you find out if your candidate really matters.  When he could have spent 48 more hours in Iowa, Dodd was the only Presidential candidate to leave the campaign trail and engage in a direct fight with Bush & Reid.  That he won was important (OK, crucial if you care about basic Constitutional rights), but in my view it simply underscored Dodd's readiness for the White House. 

None of the current candidates, Democrat or Republican, really understand the demands of the Presidency.  That's just part of what makes this race so fascinating.  But in returning to DC, in standing for principle rather than politics, Dodd demonstrated a kinship for the office unlike any of the other candidates.  The press paid a modest amount of attention to the matter, but far less than, say, the pregnancy of Britney Spear's sister.  Indeed, most voters (even in savvy Iowa or New Hampshire) would be hard pressed to accurately describe the issue or name the US Presidential candidate who actually stood-up to Bush and won.

But Dodd, alone among ALL of the candidates, went to DC, fought for our rights, won, and then came back to the cold reality of this particular campaign. 

That willingness to lead when others don't know or don't care stands apart as particularly noble kind of strength.  To me, it's the kind of leadership which suggests his complete appropriateness for the White House.  It's a certainly the kind of quality I saw in Chris Dodd early in this campaign season.  He was the only one to suggest we need a carbon tax.  Or a national public service plan.  Now that Obama and Bloomberg have echoed his calls, these ideas seem less radical.  But Dodd's willingness to make the right call, even if the times are not ready for them, stands apart during this campaign cycle. 

It's easy to surge to the top of a poll when you have a familiar last name and are ready to say what polls suggest are the issues of the day.  Anyone with a quick tongue and brain will succeed if those are the stakes of the day.  But being President -- being a great President (the kind we need right now) -- is so much more than delivering the milk & honey of today.  It involves leading a people who know they are struggling, but aren't sure how to act differently in order to get to the promised land. 

Maybe, like me, they've been distracted during this holiday season.  And maybe, like me, they need someone like Chris Dodd who will act and succeed when others won't.

Free Fallin' (The Clinton Campaign)

With less than a month until the New Hampshire primary, a new poll released this morning by WMUR & CNN shows that Hillary Clinton has lost her lead in New Hampshire.  You can read the details here, but the bottom line is, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie for first place.

There will be lots of punditry chatter about this news in the coming weeks.  Expect to hear stories of the Dean collapse in 2004, prospects raised about Clinton Comeback Kid II (just like Bill in '92), and expectations raised for Iowa caucuses that are only three weeks away.

However it's spun by the chattering media-types, this is obviously bad news for the campaign but hardly surprising news to anyone in New Hampshire.  Though they've locked up nearly every major endorsement in the Granite state among elected officials, often with a lot of arm-twisting, the Clinton campaign failed to get the support of newest members of the Democratic leadership in the state -- Congressman Paul Hodes and Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter.  To their credit, both Hodes and Shea-Porter resisted the inevitability siren issuing from the Clinton camp.  They made-up their own minds and endorsed Obama instead.  Hodes made his decision this summer, and Carol Shea-Porter announced her support yesterday for the man who still calls Illinois home.

So, at first glance, it might seem like New Hampshire voters are following the lead of their Congressional representatives, and making decisions for themselves rather than follow the herd.

But then again, maybe it's more simple than that.  Maybe there is no news here.  My sense is that Hillary never really had a lead in New Hampshire.  Here's why.  As HIllary's so-called lead grew to more than 20 points in New Hampshire, a lot of Democrats I know (and some I barely knew) kept asking me how this was possible.  Like me, many of these primary voters were not prepared to vote for Senator Clinton. They respect her, but on a variety of issues -- the health care debacle in '92, her 2002 Iraq war vote followed by years of defending the war and its conduct until she entered the Presidential race, her arrogance and sense of entitlement generally, as well as desire to see someone other than a Bush or Clinton in the White House after 20 years of nothing but -- these Democratic voters were clearly saying that Hillary Clinton would not get their vote.

And judging by these comments, my sense was that the majority of Democratic and independent voters in New Hampshire did not support Clinton.  Of those who did, rarely did I ever find anyone passionately in love with campaign.  Her staff in the Granite State are excellent, and the electeds behind her are very capable people, too.  But I did not sense passion in the grassroots of the Granite State for Hillary Clinton.  If anything, it seemed more like the enthusiasm found for yet another franchise blockbuster movie (e.g., Star Wars 9:  Return to the Bridge to the Future).

In the details of a poll released last week by USA Today, there is a hint of statistical confirmation to my hunch.   The first question in the poll asked, "Please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion   of these people...." and then proceeded to ask about each candidate.  As the pictures to the right show, among the Democratic front-runners, Clinton's unfavorably rating was worst.  In fact, it was horrible.  Over the course of 19 polls taken in the past year, the gap between the percentage of people who had a favorable impression of Clinton and those who had an unfavorable impression has rarely budged from being just a few points.  In some polls, her unfavorable percentage exceeded her favorables.  By comparison, over the same period of time, Obama and Edwards routinely enjoyed a 10-20 point positive gap in terms of their favorability rating.

Put more simply, people like Edwards and Obama, and they don't like Hillary Clinton.  And while the professionals will tell you that does not translate into votes necessarily, I think Hillary Clinton never found a way to overcome this problem.  Attacking Obama for an essay he wrote in kindergarten did not help her cause either.

That said, I think voters in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and other early states should take their time in making a final decision.  If anything, this poll shows the race is wide open, and there's plenty of opportunity for the basic dynamics of it to change in the coming weeks. 

The Uncertain, Fragile Future

For fans of New England, tonight appears to be a special night. 

The Patriots are 13-0, undefeated and coming off a huge win tonight against the world-class Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Boston Celtics are off to their best start in some 25-years.

Everyone knows the Red Sox won the World Series this year, too.

And wait, there's more. 

Snow is on the ground, more than 12 inches of natural stuff lying north of Boston and forcing ski areas throughout the region to open earlier than anyone can remember.  The Dartmouth Skiway opened yesterday (December 8th), a mere week later than its ever-earliest opening in 51 years of operation. 

Teams are scoring, lights are twinkling, and all around the region, it's beginning to look a lot like winters of yore.  Despite the cold temperatures and bundled clothing, there is a cheeriness to people in northern New England these days.  Even an advanced New Hampshire primary is not a cause for alarm.  New Hampshire will still hold the nation's first primary in 2008, and an important, worthy tradition will be upheld.

And yet....

This year marks the 20th Christmas since my wife, Elizabeth, and I began celebrating the holidays together.  So, in a way, it means I am beginning to get a small sense for what it means to circle the track.  This is my 43rd year on the planet, too.  I am aware as I've ever been of how little I know.

That said, one thing which stands apart as an almost certain truth is the fragile nature of life, particularly the future.  I was reminded of this fragility in a very intense way over the weekend.  First, I had the chance to read the tragic story on Friday of two brothers in New York City who plunged to their deaths as a result of mishap involving their window-washing scaffold.  Edgar and Alcides Moreno had just begun work at 10am on Friday when their scaffold broke loose, sending them some 45+ stories below.  Edgar died horribly upon impact and, as of now, Alcides has suffered grave injuries from whom recovery seems improbable.

As the New York Times reported, "...the brothers had come to America for a better life, and had tasted some success. They each owned a car, and for some years had shared a brick and wood-frame ranch house at 1016 Clinton Street in Linden, a working-class community in Union County. The home, bought about six years ago, is worth about $350,000 today, neighbors said. Alcides Moreno’s children attended parochial schools, and played baseball and soccer. The family often held barbecues in the summer, and swam in a backyard pool."

Both were legal immigrants, balancing the demands of everyday life against a backdrop of opportunity that hopefully lay ahead.

Certainly, that feeling of quiet optimism must have been felt by Rich and Carolynne St. Pierre when they met some seven years ago.  For the past two years, the Concord Monitor has done an exceptional job of telling their complicated and heart-rendering  story.  Seven years ago, she was a single mom with two kids who had just begun dating a new, nice guy.  As of today, she has been dead for nearly seven months as a result of aggressive liver cancer and he is a single dad with three kids, one of whom is struggling mightily with the lost of his mom.  The most recent article about their journey, the good and the bad, can be found here. 

In any given week, there are perhaps hundreds, thousands, and maybe even more true stories like those of the St. Pierre and Moreno families.  Stories whose sorrow and sadness could keep you depressed in bed for the rest of your life. 

The challenge lies in finding a reasonable story by which to live other than despair or triumphalism. 

It's not easy.  I drive by the cemetery where my father lies -- a 1,000 dreams busted by bad choices.  I see the undeserving and entitled in rich communities, complaining about slights which the working poor would love to have.   Where is the deserving, balanced middle narrative?

I don't really know the answer to that question, but for now, here's how I respond.  This borrows a bit from the Patriot's coach, Bill Belichick, to be honest, but at it's essence, I rely on an intense concentration on the immediate present. 

After today's game against the Steelers, wide receiver Randy Moss talked about the Belichick recipe, which involved focusing only on the game ahead and not thinking about the bigger picture.  OK, we beat the Steelers.  What about the Jets (next week's opponent)?  Let's not worry about the playoffs.  Let's not worry about being undefeated for the entire season.  One game at a time. 

Jason Varitek of the Red Sox implored Jonathan Papelbon to do the same thing in the World Series.  One pitch at a time.  Focus hard, now, and pretty soon you are throwing the final strike of the World Series. 

I think about this a lot with my own family.  The hug I get from my pre-teen daughter.  The smile I get from my middle son.  The chances I get to read to my youngest.  The time we spent this weekend decorating the house for Christmas.  The lovely way my middle son floats through the snow on his skies.  The funny laugh, and new boots, of my daughter.  The happy joy of eating dinner together on a cold winter night, arguing about who gets what food. 

There was a moment today that captured that essence.  My middle son and daughter had left the house for the Lyme pageant at the Congregational Church up the street a half hour ago.  My wife was leaving with our youngest son, who was also in the play.  He was running up the road, hell-bent on getting there on time.  My wife, however, was looking backward.  It was about 4:30pm, dusk had completely fallen, and she wanted to see how the house looked.  She had worked awfully hard over the weekend to get it ready for the holiday season.  Did it look OK in the darkening night?

There it was: one person focused on the future, one on the past.  A middle, somewhere.  Perhaps with me.

As I wrote above, the more I age, the less I know for certain.  But as I prepare to send my daughter away for nine days to Colorado to ski with family friends, as I ponder the imminent 8th birthday of my youngest son, and as I look over the political scene in America, I find it hard to know for certain what will come. 

What I do know, almost without question, is that the uncertain future is largely determined by focusing intently on today. 

The New Hampshire Scene

The tableau which unfolded for many New Hampshire residents over the past 48 hours -- the quiet hush of 12 inches of fallen snow, the joyous yelps of school children everywhere as classes cancel for the day, and the sweet mystery which happens when towns fall silent and stand refreshed in the quiet color and beauty of new fallen snow -- stands in stark contrast to the political battles occurring far beyond the borders of the Granite State. 

Dispatch:  NH Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley fights -- and fights is the right word -- to secure the voting privileges of New Hampshire's delegates to the Democratic Convention in Denver, CO.  With the begrudging support of Donna Brazile, Al Gore's 2000 campaign manager, Buckley was able to get the Democratic National Committee to provide a waiver that will ensure that the new date for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire will not result in a loss of delegates at the national convention.  Kudos to Buckley, and let's hope Brazile gets a better view of the Granite State before 2012.

Dispatch:  Hillary Clinton criticizes Barack Obama for an essay he wrote in kindergarten.  Yup.  Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse on the ambition-meter, Mrs. She's-In-It-To-Win-It digs deep into the opposition-research drawer and issues a press release that claims Barack Obama has been scheming since the age of five years to claim the White House.

Want to read it?  Here you go:  http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=4479

It's disgusting to read this release, and a complete confirmation, in my view, of the efforts which Hillary Clinton will undertake to win this election.  I'm a proud Democratic, but these tactics by Hillary Clinton  are revolting.

The sad thing is, there is nothing new about these tactics.  NH Insiders have heard from the Clintons for months about how they intend to win.  Far too many well-respected and thoughtful elected leaders in New Hampshire Democratic circles have been pummeled by the Clinton machine. 

Here is what I understand occurs. First, if you're an elected official of any note, expect to get a call comes from a few select New Hampshire leaders along these lines:  "hey, we're going to win, you can't expect much of a career unless you join us, etc."  (Not surprisingly,but sadly, with this logic and arm-twisting, virtually the entire NH Democratic leadership has adopted the woman from Illinois as their candidate.)

In this context, it's not hard to understand why good people who supported Edwards and Dean in 2004 suddenly find themselves in love with HIllary in 2008.  Why?   Here is what I understand happens to the reluctant elected officials:  the call comes from Mrs. Clinton herself.  There's a bit of chit-chat.  And the python-squeeze is applied, Arkansas-style:  "Are you with me or against me?"

Did this room just get colder?  Yikes....that's tough stuff.  Maybe beyond tough.  Maybe dirty and rotten.

What makes it complicated is that as this video suggests, Hillary will say anything to get elected. She will pick the Yankees.  She will pick the Cubs.  She will pick you, as an elected official.  She will pick your opponent.  She will say anything to win.  You're an elected official and suddenly the reign of Clinton is upon you.

How do you respond?

The stakes appear to be high in New Hampshire.  With her fire-wall of elected endorsees in the Granite State, Hillary Clinton seems to have built a significant position, the kind which might just withstand a defeat in Iowa.

Maybe.

But amidst the tranquility of this year's first snowstorm, I remain convinced of the wisdom of the New Hampshire electorate.  I am firm Dodd supporter, but Barack Obama's campaign over the past few months has been nothing short of impressive, and a welcome alternative (and more) to the ambitious, desperate moves of Senator Clinton.  It will resonate with NH voters, I believe, and stand apart from the Hail Mary measures which the Senator from (IL, NY, DC....your choice) throws into the electoral endzone.

Tonight, as I threw the baseball to my dog near the Lyme Common, when there wasn't a sound near us, when there were no cars to disturb us, it occurred to me that maybe the New Hampshire scene is just right.  The right blend of skepticism and optimism.