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July 08, 2009

The Yankee Republican Returns

Just when a person thought things could not improve for the Republican Party – reeling as it was from the philandering of Senator Ensign and Governor Sanford, as well as the bizarre behavior of Governor Palin (if you want to read a semi-illiterate missive from the Alaskan governor, click here ) – two old-fashioned Yankee Republicans in New England stepped forward to begin reclaiming their party.

Yesterday, it was New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who announced her resignation later this month to explore a run for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2010 (Republican Judd Gregg currently holds the seat and has announced he won’t run again). 

Today it was Charlie Baker, the Massachusetts wunderkid who served in two of the biggest jobs in the Bay State -- Secretary of Health and Human Services and later as Secretary of Finance and Administration – and who announced he was going to run for Governor of the Commonwealth in 2010.

Just like that, the species of Yankee Republican – thought to be dead, done, and gone – has returned like a phoenix. 

Here’s what we know both of them share.

  • Managerial competence

Baker has far more stripes on his uniform, both in government and in business (where he served as CEO for two large, very complex organizations, Harvard Vanguard and Harvard Pilgrim), but both Ayotte and Baker have solid reputations as straight-shooters who consider facts first, and then think about ideology.

  • Fiscal conservatism 

We don’t know as much about Ayotte in this regard, but Baker’s record is clear on this issue and my suspicion is that Ayotte will be very similarly tight-fisted.  Both candidates are banking on spending and stewardship of tax dollars to be the number one issue for voters in 2010.  They will argue that Lynch, Patrick, and Obama have been spending tax dollars recklessly and inefficiently.

  •  Refusal to embrace conservative social issues  

Other than endorsing a strong law-and-order perspective, I don’t expect either Ayotte or Baker to bear-hug conservative social issues significantly.  While we will see what each candidate says and does on the campaign trail (see below), and while I expect each candidate will mouth support for conservative positions like so-called traditional marriage, immigration, and abortion, I also expect neither candidate will adopt a call to overturn existing laws or judicial rulings in their respective states.  I think it’s reasonable to expect them to endorse charter schools, but look for a libertarian-to-moderate social conservatism from both candidates.  And expect both to be pro-environment. 

  •  Likeability  

It’s hard to deny that both candidates offer a lot to like – they’re smart, earnest, hard-working, pleasant on the eyes, and not ideologically paralyzed. We will learn a lot more about them on the campaign trail, but on paper and in person (so far), both Baker and Ayotte have a lot going for them.

  • Inexperience  

Neither Baker nor Ayotte has run for statewide office before.  We have no idea how well they will do, either in terms of connecting with a huge swath of voters or in terms of managing a campaign enterprise. 

One of Obama’s secret assets during the 2008 campaign was how well he managed his own team – it showed he had the managerial chops to run the federal government.   The nod here has to go to Baker in terms of delivering the goods, if only because he has far more work experience than Ayotte.  On the other hand, running a statewide campaign in New Hampshire is far easier than in Massachusetts. 

Aside from the managerial demands, I think the great unknown is how they each do in front of crowds, big and small.  In this YouTube age, when every comment can and will be recorded, it’s not at all clear that they will be as good in the public square as they are in the governmental office.  It’s true that Deval Patrick had none of this experience when he ran, and it’s probably true, too, that John Lynch won three gubernatorial elections without mastering the art of a public presentation, but Ayotte and Baker must still present (day after day) in forums other than their own choosing for months and months if they are to be successful in November 2010. 

So, who will fare best some 15 months from now, Ayotte or Baker?  I’d have to give the nod to Baker.  He’s got more government experience, a deeper rolodex for fundraising, proven managerial skills, and an electorate happy to elect Republican Governors to counter the strangle-hold that the corrupt Massachusetts Democratic Party has over statehouse politics.  Ayotte faces a real uphill battle, despite polling numbers that whisper otherwise like a siren.  Though a solid public servant, she will struggle from a variety of issues (no support from John Lynch, a modest rolodex, and no experience in retail politics), but none will be so damning as her swim against the demographic stream in the Granite State.  As Andy Smith of UNH and others have demonstrated, the New Hampshire electorate has swung Democratic.  They outnumber Republicans in terms of voter registration, and if you add independent voters to the mix, the advantage clearly belongs to the Dems.  I predict that Hodes will beat Ayotte so long as Obama’s popularity remains above 55% in New Hampshire in November 2010 (which would be about ten points below where the President polls today), and he makes no major mistakes on the campaign trail.    

Regardless of who wins in November 2010, the events of the past two days signal an important moment for the Republican Party nationally, one which Democrats ought to notice.  First, the Obama cool – in managing, consideration of world events, and style – can be co-opted by the other party.  Democrats also ought to notice that spending (and its twin, the deficit) will be the policy issues upon which Republicans run in 2010.  Democrats will not only have to defend their choices, but hope that the economy shows sustainable signs of recovery by the next mid-term election if they are to retain their advantage in Congress and among governorships.  

June 25, 2009

Quick Thoughts on Michael Jackson

On a night when I could write about a host of topics -- the sudden warm weather in New Hampshire, the wobbly economy, or the joy and sadness which comes with seeing your children grow  -- I thought it might do something completely different with this blog and comment on a person with popularity.

The news today that Michael Jackson unexpectedly died will no doubt receive an significant amount of attention in the coming days, weeks, and months. Towards that end, I don't pretend to offer much.  First, I wasn't a huge MJ fan, to be honest, though I was also not blind (or deaf) to the obvious.

What was the obvious?

Talented -- of course.  Insanely talented.

Breakthrough artist -- absolutely.  He defied categories in the early 1970s with the Jackson 5 and again as a solo artist in the early 1980s. 

Weird, and maybe even a criminal, person?  All of the evidence was circumstantial, as far as I could tell, but there's no question this was not a person operating on the same cylinders as you and me.

So, with that mixed bag before us, let me simply share two brief, positive, and indelible memories of Michael Jackson.

First, the Motown 25th anniversary special, which aired in the spring of 1983.  I remember reading a very positive review from Tom Shales in The Washington Post of the TV special, and spent that evening watching most of the broadcast.  Michael was simply electrifying.  After appearing with this brothers for a reunion of songs, he appeared unadorned on stage to sing "Billie Jean."  It was crazy.  The audience reaction was insane and I remember thinking, especially after he moonwalked, that it was one of the greatest live performances I had ever seen. 

The second is a bit more obscure -- a 20/20 ABC News story on Michael, right around the time of "Rock With You," and it was about how this child star was emerging into an artist in his own right.  The piece featured this funky thing called a video of "Don't Stop," and all I can remember is feeling (in that pre-teen body of mine) that this was some funky stuff.  Not deep funky, mind you, but an everlasting, cross-the-galaxy funky.  The kind of thing which was deep and light and forever.

In both instances, Jackson stands in my mind as a someone who could shatter a person's understanding of popular music.  I will always regard John Coltrane and Miles Davis (and maybe others, like Stevie Wonder) before Michael Jackson in terms of overall importance in American music, but there's a special place for him nonetheless.

Maybe it's right here.

On dark nights in Winter, when we finish dinner early and the kids grab the iPod, there are two artists who get Mom, Dad, and all three kids dancing around the kitchen:  the Bee-Gees are one, but it's always, always, always Michael who gets everyone out of their seat.  Dishes are ignored, hips start to shake, and there is abandon in the air when that dudu-dat-dudu-dat drum bit comes a'tremblin' and that wompa-deh-wompa-deh-wompa bass line hits the speakers from "Billy Jean." Suddenly the madness of the world is far, far away and we are nothing but funky people, grooving to that-can't-resist rhythm that came from a young man born in Gary, Indiana many years ago.

June 03, 2009

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

While it's been nearly forever since I last posted on this blog, the absence owes nothing to a lack of issues about which to write or words written about those issues.  They've just not appeared here.  Why?  A lot of it has to do with my new work schedule, which (owing to the economy) sees me officially at 80% of my usual work schedule.  It's more like 60% of my usual work schedule, but in terms of this blog, it's meant I've needed time to get comfortable with the new routine.

Enough about me; let's jump into the fray, where I'd like to suggest that New Hampshire took two incredible steps forward tonight, and one big step backward.

The first piece of good news should be obvious: Governor Lynch signed into law today a bill which makes the Granite State the 6th state in the union to recognize marriage from same-sex couples.  It's a huge step forward -- not simply on the issue of rights for all citizens, but on the issue of marriage itself.  At a time when the number of single parents is increasing, this is a step forward to encourage the opposite.  Marriage is not for everyone, but let's not put any hurdles in the way of those individuals who seek to establish such an important union.

The second step forward involved the statement from New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (a Republican) that the proposed budget out of the New Hampshire Senate, which would bring 13,000 video slot machines to the Granite State, would damage New Hampshire's "quality of life.  As AG Ayotte put it, gambling leads far too many people to increased rates of "bankruptcy, divorce, child abuse, domestic violence, and crime." 

Let the church say "amen."  There is nothing positive that comes to the New Hampshire brand when 13,000 video slot machines are littered throughout the state.  It's bad enough to consider gambling as an honorable means upon which to finance basic government services, but the idea that one of our most precious assets -- the quality of life in New Hampshire -- would be trashed so quickly is disgraceful.  Congratulations to AG Ayotte for opposing this short-sighted measure.

The step backwards, of course, came when the New Hampshire Senate today voted to support a budget which depends upon these 13,000 video gambling machines as revenue source.  By a margin of 2-1, the Senate ignored not only the wisdom of the Attorney General, but also the common sense of most voters.  According to a poll from UNH taken earlier this year, only 41% of Granite State voters support candidates who support legalized gambling -- hardly an endorsement. 

I'm terribly disappointed that the Upper Valley's two Democratic senators -- Matt Houde and Deb Reynolds -- support this gambling-dependent budget. As we saw with the gay marriage bill, it's increasingly clear that the most important political issues of the day defying simple political labels like Democrat v. Republican or liberal v. conservative.  What we need in New Hampshire (and in the nation) are neo-realists -- politicans who make practical decisions based on evidence rather than prescribed ideology. 

I'd reckon that if more such politicans existed in New Hampshire, I'd be crowing about a terrific 3-steps forward from the Granite State.

April 30, 2009

Three Cheers for Marriage

The news today that the New Hampshire State Senate passed a bill legalizing gay marriage -- after plenty of hints that this esteemed body would do otherwise -- brought an incredible smile to my face and warm feeling to my heart.

I support marriage.  It's one of the hardest things anyone can undertake.  Any legislation which welcomes more people to this awesome responsibility and joy has my support.

(On a purely political note, I'm thrilled that New Hampshire State Senator Deb Reynolds reversed her earlier position, and voted this afternoon in favor of the gay marriage bill.)

The only apparent impediment to the bill's final adoption lies with the governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch, who has said he supports "traditional marriage."

In his lexicon, Governor Lynch says "traditional marriage" means "between a man and a woman."

Really?

I thought traditional marriage was something much harder and complex than simply a guy and a gal getting together.  I also support "traditional marriage," but I thought it was something like this: fidelity in good times and bad.  Sickness and health.  I thought marriage was akin to embarking a forever journey, the likes of which will demand more and give more than either person could possibly imagine at its start.

I should know.  I failed at marriage the first time I tried.  I got married almost immediately after graduating from college, and fell almost immediately on my face in light of its responsibilities.  I was simply not ready and within about a year, the marriage was over.

Fast forward nearly twenty-five years later, and a slightly different picture emerges.  Elizabeth and I will have been married for 18 years this June.  We have three incredible children.  We've owned three different homes, and shared an uncountable number of experiences together -- good, bad, sad, and happy.

I don't pretend to know the secrets of what makes marriage work, but the practice we've fallen is pretty simple:  we get married everyday.  Sure, we had a great and wonderful wedding.  But the most important thing I've found is to wake-up each day and get married again.  Day by day, week by week, we get stronger and resilient and better at this really demanding institution.

Many years ago, my mother passed this gem to me about marriage: it's much easier to stay single.  Marriage asks for more.  It asks for what is not given easily.  As time progresses, as our bodies age, as bad habits become entrenched, as the grass looks greener (always) somewhere else, marriage can seem as attractive as an evening spent flossing one's teeth.

There isn't a married person out there who hasn't wondered, I suppose, is this all there is? 

What happened to the sweet wedding cake, the fancy dress, and party invitations? 

Long after the wedding music has ended and guests leave, marriage rears its head and asks us to consider something far more complex, rich, and mysterious.  

And yet there are these moments, too, with marriage that defy simple explanation and exceed any other joy we might know.  The quiet cusp of two hands in the middle in the night.  A shared knowing look as children talk and laugh and sing.  That feeling, suddenly, that the person you married 1,001 years ago is hot, again.

I believe traditional marriage means embracing all of the contradictions and simple pleasures that come with commitment.  I believe it means supporting fewer out-of-wedlock births.  I believe it means supporting community-based and faith-based programs that help married people, young and old, navigate this journey.  I believe traditional marriage means having to say sometimes that you're sorry, sometimes that you're not sorry, and that always that you love, cherish, and remain faithful to the one you married.  

Traditional marriage is about embracing an instituion that welcomes the complex union of two strong individuals.  And while no piece of legislation can describe such a complex arc completely, I believe these so-called gay marriage bills do much more than extend this right to the rest of us.  In fact, I think the real genius of these bills lies in the subtle way they remind us of this complex journey. 

Do you want to get married?  Really?

If so, welcome to the club.

April 13, 2009

On Easter

What does it mean, anyway?

This funny holiday, smack dab in the middle of the cold Spring that defines northern New England, hardly seems like a redemption song.

Yesterday, the wind howled, the air was cold, and the snow -- yes, the snow -- blew across my porch.  It was like so many Easters I’ve seen in these parts of New Hampshire and Vermont.  Kids wore hats searching for eggs.  I froze while hiding them.  Not all of the eggs were found.

Maybe Easter is a bit harder and less Spring-like in these parts compared to the rest of the nation, but it’s not just the weather which is different here.  In my circles in northern New England, Easter feels like a decidedly unreligious holiday.  My New Hampshire nephew attended a driver’s education class on Easter this year.  My New Hampshire son had soccer practice scheduled on Easter Sunday (he did not go).  Is everyone here so inclined to pass the holiday by without consideration of its significance? 

And yet as I consider these apparent transgressions, I find myself wondering, what is the significance of Easter?  Why does this holiday occur?  Why does it matter, especially today?

Even though no one would mistake the crew around my Easter dinner table for acolytes to the christian or catholic priesthood, it was still surprising to gauge that so few of the adults, and far fewer of the kids, at my table knew the historical origins or religious symbolism of Easter.  Yesterday I felt like a CCD teacher explaining the 101 of Good Friday and resurrection. 

Even the meaning of salvation itself seemed foreign to my dinner crew.  Why would anyone die for my sins?  Why?

In the hopes of redeeming the un-sought redeemer, let me suggest a simple interpretation, one bereft (I hope) of too much dogma and one containing (I hope) just enough spirit to capture the imagination and soul. 

Easter is about forgiveness.

At the basic level of existence, as we come from a hard Winter, as we see still see and feel cold air and around us, we must let go and welcome the warmth of Spring.

At a much deeper level, as we consider the stories of Jesus’s resurrection and even Passover itself, we are reminded of sacrifice deep and symbolic (unleavened bread, the garden in Gethsemane).  We are reminded that Spring comes at a price. 

Yes, come Spring, we know that there is the need to plant seeds and renew our faith and hope in the future.  But that renewal comes after sacrifice, even disappointment and hurt, in the past. 

In that vein, I’d suggest that Easter is the hardest holiday to celebrate.  Whether you observe Lent or not, this is a time when sacrifices are recorded and acquire value.  Easter is more than sweet candy in the mouth on a cold day, or hot ham and potatoes chased by cool white wine.  It’s about the bitter which passed before -- the dry skin which comes with Winter, the heartache of losing a beloved in the snowy part of the year, or the hardness a family felt as it struggled to heat a home, pay bills, and feed everyone. 

For many Americans, and indeed for citizens across the globe, this past Winter and Fall has been a time of dramatic hurt.  A hurt larger than usual for this time of year.  Which meant that Easter 2009 seemed to me to be subdued.  Sure, everyone is grateful for the relative improvement in warmth (not to mention the stock market), but it’s a quiet appreciation we feel.  The economic fall has been so far and deep.  In that vein, the Easter holiday comes and we stand in the cold wind, chastened by what has come before and uncertain by what might follow. 

So let me take you to the past.  About 30 years ago, my father provocatively opened discussion at Easter brunch with this question: did Jesus need to die and rise from the dead in order for Easter to occur? 

It was a great question -- not too dissimilar from the kind which I had heard from him before at thousand different forums (he loved to push us), but this was just provocative enough to make everyone at the table stop their routine, listen, and argue.  OK, maybe scream.  I remember leaving that table about four hours later -- worn-out and terribly satisfied with the arguing, debating, and questioning we had all undergone.  It was a lesson in debate, no question.  More importantly, it was a lesson in questioning and independent thought.

Did Jesus need to die and rise from the dead in order for Easter to occur?

I don’t know that answer today.  In fact, I don’t know that answer today anymore than I did then. 

At the time, some 30 years ago, I remember arguing that Jesus did not have to die for Easter to exist.  And I remember feeling pretty good about my answers -- unlike a good catholic, I suggested that grace alone saved us.  Good works mattered, but the promise of salvation was due more to our willingness to accept our sinful state, and ask for forgiveness, than anything else.

Today? 

I don’t feel so good about those answers.  Today I feel that someone has to sacrifice, even it’s to encourage the rest of us, the cowardly, to be strong and do the same.  Someone has to help the rest of us do the right thing.  For whom will we provide salvation?  Who will encourage us to take in the afflicted, to clean them up?  Who will tell us to give them some water and put them to bed? 

During Easter, Jesus gives us that answer.  He provides that leadership.  Tempted fully as a human being, he rises to do more.  He sacrifices himself for us with no promise that the future will be brighter for him or us. 

And in so doing, I’d suggest that Jesus -- and all who sacrifice without knowing that the future will be brighter -- commits the ultimate act of Easter.  He forgives unconditionally.  He takes the raw and broken and unworthy matter of our human existence, and repairs it with a few words and a gesture.

Each of us is capable of doing the same.  We are all capable of the kind gesture, the kind word, and the kind act.  Even in the cold wind, we can provide shelter.  We can heal and repair by our very presence. 

More than 35 years ago, I remember a call that came in the middle in the night that tested this theory.  My uncle was calling to say this was it -- he was going to die, he was going throw himself into a waterfall.  My mother begged him to stop.  We all begged him to stop.  We stood shaking around a red table, wondering if this moment would pass.  Our uncle.  Our uncle on the edge of waterfall.  His lonely struggle with addiction stood before us with no easy answers. 

That night came and went.  He did not jump. 

Over the next 20 years, as my mother and her siblings and his children and love ones tried to help -- sometimes foolishly, sometimes heroically.  They did what was required for Easter.  They sacrificed and forgave.  No sweet candies awaited them.  My uncle, god rest his soul, died alone.  He never fully recovered. 

In my lifetime, my uncle was a child to his mother and father.  In my lifetime, he was a brother to his siblings and a father to his children.  He was imperfect, stubborn, and maybe worse. 

But was he a child of God?  Were his arms stretched out for love?  And if so, can we forgive him?

This is the meaning of Easter to me.  The “holiday” asks more than we might initially think.  Maybe here -- in the cold north of New England -- it’s a little clearer that this is a bittersweet holiday, a time not for rejoicing but for bittersweet contemplation. 

“To err is human, to forgive divine” (Alexander Pope).

April 08, 2009

The Need to Write

I feel the itch. 

It comes tonight as it does most evenings, when I'm least aware or ready or prepared.  I have to go to that place -- that quiet, scary place -- and write.

Most of what occurs in that place appears here on this blog.  Looking back over the last year-and-a-half of blogging and writing, I'd estimate that 15% of what I start to write never makes it to the blog.  But even on those nights when I might spend an hour or two writing, even if it does not appear here, the itch gets scratched. 

The blog has been an almost perfect medium for me in which to write.  It wasn't easy at first.  For the first six months or so, I worried almost entirely about the wrong things.  Was this blog was getting enough traffic?.  I wondered, would people cared about what I wrote?   

But as time has ticked forward, I worry less and less about audience.  I've come to appreciate blogging for the chance it offers me as a writer unfettered. 

Back in the day, when I was first discovering the power of writing, words came from my brain unto a piece of paper that could be shared only one person at a time. Today, my potential audience is beyond comprehension. 

So, problem number one solved:  lots of people can read what I write.

Problem two?  Finishing.

Again, the blogesphere addresses the problem perfectly.  Sometimes I write online (via Typepad) and sometimes I write offline (via Pages, which I've come to enjoy more than Word), but the bottom line is that I need to write and only have finite amount of time and brainspace in which to write.

GitRDone, in other words. 

Blogging has helped me get more writing done.  It is a beautiful place, and my primary place, for first-draft writing.  Sure, I work hard to fix typos in my posts.  I also work hard to avoid terribly constructed sentences or awkward thoughts.  But the writing is very much first-draft.  Type, think, type, and think for a solid 45 minutes to one hour, and then it's done.  Like tonight, I routinely begin after 10pm and aim to finish not long after the 11pm bell sounds.

I also love the immediacy of blogging.  I write something, someone else reads it, and I get comments.  Any writer feels wonderful knowing others read what they have produced.  The other day, when I published my quarterly newsletter as part of my day job, I got a call at 8am on the morning on which it was published from a reader who liked what was published. 

With blogging, it's even faster.  People read and respond almost instantaneously. I get to learn what works (and doesn't) immediately. 

I also love how blogging makes it possible for a part-time writer to think full-time about writing.  There isn't a moment these days when I am not thinking about writing.  As I drive, as I meet with people, as I look at the night sky -- all of it unfolds in the language and habit of writing.  I see people and scenes, and think about it in terms of paragraphs.

The practice of blogging -- beyond scratching the existential need to write -- also forces me to record what I think and see.

There's no more hiding.  No more confiding to a few close friends or family members what I think.  The page beckons now.  I can't help but respond.  I must write.  I must confide and think and organize and present. 

Thanks to the blogesphere, I get to be a writer.  I get to scratch the itch.

March 27, 2009

A Cruel, Cruel April?

T.S. Eliot famously wrote in 1922 that "April is the cruellest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain."

Eight-seven years later, I find myself wondering if Eliot's remarks will seem like prophecy. 

Sure, we're experiencing a delightful bull run in a bear market, and signs of an economic spring appear here and there.  Best Buy sales, up 10%.  Consumer spending, up.  Housing starts, up. 

Local merchants and business owners in the Upper Valley tell me similar tales after a frozen Winter that all wish to forget.  A job here and there appears.  A slight increase in customers occurs.  People start to dine and purchase again.

I'm cheered by these observations, but also remain wary. 

First, it's hard to imagine anything other than terrible first-quarter earnings numbers from most companies in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.  These reports will be made public between now and mid-April, and if most are as bad as I expect, this news will depress the market further.

Second, broader economic data suggests we're not thru this recession.  Despite a decline in housing construction, housing inventories remain high and prices for homes continue to drop.  The latest figures suggest 10-12 months of housing inventory still exist. 

Third, for now at least, lending standards remain very, very high.  In that light, I support Treasury Secretary Geithner's plan to bail out toxic assets, but also agree (with his own assessment) that it is risky and success not certain.  Short of nationalization, it's the best alternative.  What's clear is that something must get lending and credit flowing again in the economy.  Without it, we're drifting for months, years, and maybe longer in an economic morass.

Fourth, oil prices remain low, but at the first sustained signs of an economic spring, expect gas prices at the pump in the US to quickly reach $3.00 per gallon and maybe higher.  Such a move will pyschologically (and negatively) affect consumer confidence, and thus flatten any return to normalcy. 

A host of thoughtful experts and practictioners in the economy -- everyone from Jeff Immelt to Ben Bernake -- suggest that true and sustainable signs of recovery will occur by late 2009 and clearly exists in 2010. 

I hope so.  My own sense is that the rest of Spring of 2009 could be very difficult indeed.  It will try our patience significantly.

March 25, 2009

Economic Mud Season

Imagine This:

Come home at the end of the day, pet the dog, kiss the kids, un-shoulder bags and coats, and head straight for the deck outside. 

Why?

To answer the question.

The Question?

How much snow has melted?

The Next Question:

Has Mud Season arrived, and when will I get the chance to throw the ball against the pitch-back for my dog, Bear, again?

A triumphant, affirmative answer came three nights ago, when enough snow disappeared to create a small landing strip for the baseball wobbling against the pitch-back.  By tonight, a semi-field existed of yellow, frozen-crusted grass and dirt, enough for me to rear-back like Randy Johnson and thrown a hard fastball from 30 yards away.  My black Labrador dog, Bear -- now soft and out-of-shape after three-plus months of gentle walks from our house around the Lyme Common, all due to the frozen and deep snow which lay in our backyard this Winter -- panted again and again as I threw the ball. 

This is hope.  This is the real thing.  A dark sky, a million stars, and the thrill of pitching a scuffed baseball again and again and again into the night at an aging pitch-back device. 

A look-ahead at the weather forecast suggests Winter might be done for good.  Like last year, the snow is receding very quickly.  The Dartmouth Green is almost completely worn of snow.  The Dartmouth Skiway has precious few trails remaining in operation, barely enough to meet this weekend's festivities.  Cross-country skiing is finished, even though the woods surrender their snow last.

On days like this, the mornings arrive brisk and solid as ice, but by 11am, it's nearly 50 degrees Fahrenheit.  Jackets fall away, hats are doffed, and almost everyone seems to have an extra bounce in their step and gait. 

Mud season is everywhere.  Regardless of where people live -- be it China or India, London or New York, Washington or Moscow -- they seek signs which suggest some thaw in the economic deep freeze which has gripped the nation and the world since at least the Fall of 2007. 

This afternoon at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, Jeff Immelt of General Electric described the situation in candid terms that were as worrying as optimistic.  We're living in historic times, he said, the likes of which he never could have predicted seeing in his lifetime.  Immelt recalled that in mid-September 2008, he received a phone call from then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (a fellow Dartmouth alumnus) who suggested that it was entirely possible that the Federal Reserve window for borrowing might not open the next day, and that GE ought to do everything it can to prepare for that possibility.  Immelt described how he and a team at General Electric stayed up the entire night that evening preparing for that possibility. 

Mud Season resets the calendar for those of us who live in northern New England.  Suddenly our skin is not so dry and itchy.  Suddenly our driveways are clear of snow and ice.  Suddenly the snow drifts don't hover near the tree branches. 

Immelt said this economic crisis is as deep and fundemental a reset as any in the last 100 or more years.  It's the mud season to end all mud seasons.  Immelt, a staunch Republican who said he has never voted for a Democrat, declared this afternoon that "we're all Democrats now."  Government spending is the only answer, and a resetting of expectations around compensation, regulation, and social values is critical for businesses who hope to succeed in this new environment. 

The market rally -- is it that? -- of the last few weeks appears to be a kissin-cousin of the optimism I bring every night to my back porch.  I seek an end to the snow and ice in my backyard.  Everyone else is asking, has housing hit bottom?  Will durable good orders increase?  Is there a bottom there, please?  When does this horrible movie end?

Politicians assure us the end, if not in clear sight, will appear soon.  Even Jeff Immelt said today that an end to this economic calamity will come.  No one is entirely sure when, but if there's any parallel with mud season, it surely lies in the fact that time, place, and season to all things in this world.

Mud season does arrive.  Spring follows, and Summer not long afterwards.  Will the economy behave similarly?

I hope so.  Everyone hopes so.

March 20, 2009

On Bonuses

For all of the sturm and drang over the AIG bonuses, it's important to peel back a layer of indignation and ask the following question:

How many of us are reacting (and maybe over-reacting) to the bonus scandal at AIG because we don't really understand (and maybe don't want to understand) the magnitude of the credit-default swap and derivative scandal at AIG?

Everyone understand a bonus.  You work.  You earn a wage or a salary.  And then someone pays you more, supposedly based on outstanding performance of either yourself or the firm.

But derivatives?  Credit-default swaps?  Huh? 

No matter that the so-called sin of bonuses at AIG ($160+M) compared to AIG's other sins in credit-default swaps and derivatives (as judged by the US government bailout of $80B) is on the order of at least 1:2,000. 

Put more simply, for $1 in bonus money sent to AIG which we now protest, another $2,000 has gone to the firm for its risk business practices in credit-default swaps and derivatives. 

The bottom line is, we understand bonuses, even if they represent some 0.20% of the federal monies committed to AIG.  All of this anger about bonuses at AIG involves less than 1% of the total money committed by the federal government to AIG.  Weird, right?

Wrong.  Most Americans don't receive a bonus in their paycheck.  They earn an hourly wage or a yearly salary, and they're glad to get it. 

And for years, we've heard about CEOs and other corporate leaders earning performance-related pay packages in the tens of millions of dollars, while more than half of us have earned barely stayed afloat or earned less than we did ten years ago. 

Now comes the recession, and while we're not expecting corporate leaders to earn a lot less, the notion of bonuses seems particularly unfathomable. 

So, there is both logic and ill-logic in our reaction to the AIG bonuses.  If we are really concerned about malfeasance, we ought to focus on the illegitimate business practices of the AIG hedge fund that committed to insure the un-insurable.  The bonuses paid by AIG are wrong, but they frankly pale in comparison to the real crime committed by this financial giant.

So, where do we go from here?

First, I think we need to commit ourselves to real and significant wage and salary growth for the "bottom" 60-80% of American households in the next ten years in terms of income.  This is the group which has lost or barely kept afloat during the Bush years.  Obama's focus on health care is critical to achieving this goal.  Far too many corporate and other organizational dollars have gone towards meeting health care of employees needs than wage needs in the last 20 years because of incredible inefficiencies in our health care system.  Once we have a more effective system, employers will be able to (and should) direct compensation dollars away from benefits like health care and more towards wages and salaries.  

Second, we need to maintain the middle-class tax cut introduced by the Obama administration.  The mal-distribution of societal responsibility introduced by the Bush administration must end.  A return to Clinton-era tax rates, which is what Obama proposes, for the most wealthy and privileged in American society is the first step towards ensuring opportunity for all. 

Finally, we must re-regulate our financial houses.  Faithful readers of this blog know I endorsed Senator Chris Dodd in the New Hampshire primary, and did not endorse then-Senator Obama until Senator Dodd withdrew after the Iowa caucuses.  Months later, when Senator Dodd had a chance to return to the Granite State in the summer of 2008, I asked him about the pending financial crisis, and whether he thought modification of the Financial Services Modernization Act or the Commodities Modernization Act was necessary. 

To my great disappoint, Senator Dodd demurred.  He did not think it was necessary to separate the Wall Street functions of banking from its Main Street functions.  By blending the two operations, we could compete in a global economy, he said.

I like and appreciate and think highly of Senator Dodd, but I'm afraid he and far too many Republicans and Democrats simply missed the disastrous implications of these bills (for the record, the Financial Services Modernization Act was passed under the Clinton administration, and the Commodities Modernization Act passed under President George W. Bush). 

The bottom line is that conservative, prudent, and proven financial strategies for asset management, banking, and insurance were tossed aside once senior executives were compensated by the quarterly growth of their company's stock. 

Bonus-stalking and inflated quarterly earnings became the lifeblood of firms and their leaders. Instead of serving as cherry atop a well-earned dessert, bonuses swelled to such proportions that leadership in financial institutions swayed to whatever short-term methods would allow them to earn these lucrative "rewards."  The cherry became the dessert, and what followed was a complete upheaval of our financial system.  For all of our outrage over the recent round of bonuses paid by AIG, we ignore the years and years in which Wall Street leaders (and many corporate leader far from Wall Street) paid themselves handsomely for profits that we now understand were fiction.

What saddens me most in these turbulent times lies with the failure to learn from organizations that do understand how to lend to the most risky set of customers.  Consider the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund, which has made over $100M worth of loans since 1984 to the riskiest of borrowers. It's been in the subprime finance and housing market for its entire career.  Its default rate?  In over 25 years, the historical average has been less than 1%.  If nothing else, their track record shows its very realistic to lend money to these markets without bringing undue risk to investors. 

It's easy to get frothy about the AIG bonus situation, but doing so avoids the hard work ahead that will reset our economic and financial priorities.  If a small non-profit in New Hampshire can safely invest in sub-prime borrowers for 25 years and do better than Wall Street, surely its possible for that lesson to be shared with other financial firms.  If there is a bonus to be found in this economic melt-down, it's that prudent financial practices can in fact enable a 21st century middle-class to re-emerge in the United States.

March 16, 2009

Economic Frost Heaves Ahead

It's been a while since I posted to my blog, owing more to the insane schedule that defines Winter for my family than anything else. 

In the 15 weeks since Thanksgiving, we've balanced 12 public meetings on the Lyme School budget, almost weekly Lyme budget committee meetings, four-days-a-week of ski-race instruction (including travel to mountains several hours away from our home), twice-a-week basketball practice or games which I coached for 10 weeks, and twice-a-week work or volunteer commitments in the evening for both myself and Elizabeth.

Plus visitors on weekends.  Oh, and plus work for both of us.

Mud season approaches, and a gentle cheer erupts from everyone in the Glenshaw household.  It means on weekends we can get up after 5:30am.  It means we eat dinner together for four or more nights of the week.  It means a return to a normal schedule as a family.

Alas, since November (more like September), there has been no normal in terms of the economy.  And in fact, since January, what had been a good-to-bad situation has grown far, far worse.  Indeed last week, as I listened to two podcasts from Business Week and The New Yorker about the economic crisis, I heard the word "depression" mentioned several times as term most appropriate for describing the economic conditions we face.

We can quibble about whether the term is appropriate, but there is no mistaking the dire situation ahead.  For instance, when my employer made the decision to reduce 150 positions through a combination of attrition, layoffs, and early retirement, the Dow stood at approximately 9,000.  A week ago the Dow was at 6,500 and today nothing much more than a sheer desire for optimism has the index nudging just north of 7,200. 

I was one of those affected.  Although I was not laid-off, my hours and pay have been reduced by 20%.  Add the extra cost for health benefits in this situation, and the impact is more like 25%.

The economic road ahead is not just rocky and hard to navigate.  It's frankly dangerous. 

Consider the fundamental industries in near or complete collapse today: finance, housing, and automobile.  Previous recessions saw high-tech or energy alone as the primary drivers of economic recession.  You don't need a doctorate in economics to understand that multiple pillars of the economy in economic distress -- coupled with global interdependency and the volatility which accompanies Internet-age communication -- makes for a destabilizing financial system that will require a significant amount of time for complete recovery. 

Maybe this is what a 21st century Depression looks like.

I also find myself deeply concerned with the lack of national unity on this issue.  Sure, everyone knows there is an economic crisis at hand, but there seems to be a distinctive lack of national commitment to solving the problem together.  Warren Buffett compared this moment to Pearl Harbor, yet I sense no response that compares with that historical moment.  Instead it feels like a pack of ducks or geese dominates the headlines.  We seem more committed to pecking on the shortfalls in prescriptions made by others than on navigating the road ahead together.

So, in the spirit of national unity, here is my prescription for the next few months. 

  1. Patience plus.  These days, it takes much longer than I would like to travel from my home to the Dartmouth Skiway because of the many frost heaves between here and there.  Go too fast, and the transmission on your car will get ripped out.  Go too slow, and you risk angering everyone behind your too-slow-car.  Let's assume the same pace with the development of economic policy.  Not too fast, not too slow -- middlin' is just fine.
  2. Breathe deeply.  When things seem tough, remain calm.  When good news appears (two months of profit at Citi!!!!!!!!), remain calm.  In other words, be cool.  Yes, three fundamental pillars of the US and perhaps global economy are in trouble, but there are a lot of sectors with promise ahead.   No less than IBM shows tremendous strength ahead.  GE is sure to be winner, too.  A week ago, when I began this post, GE was at about $6 per share.  Today it is nearly $10 per share.  Hang in there.
  3. Re-balance, and move ahead.  The next winners will be those companies, organizations, and individuals who adjust their operating plans to the new economic reality without losing sight of their fundamental mission or goal or customer.  The losers will be those who become near-sighted, and wonder how will I/We/Us survive.  Wrong question.  The right question is, how do we grow?  Make no mistake -- even in times like this, some organizations, companies, and individuals soar.  Are you going to belong to this elite club, or are you going to be a wannabe?

While I still have enormous faith in our national and international economy to recover, I also believe that we are entering a period of enormous economic distress that will require a solid year or more, not months, before recovery will occur. 

This time of year, as the snow and ice recede in New Hampshire, the detritus of Winter becomes apparent.  Fallen tree limbs, sleds, clothing, and all manner of leave-behinds from family pets appear.  In a few months, the tired grass will appear bright green in my backyard, but tonight the few patches of earth which emerge appear sick, yellow, and mangled -- crushed by the weight of four months of heavy snow and ice. 

Will I have the patience to wait for the ice to recede and the green grass to return before heading into the backyard to practice pitching? 

Will I have the patience to ride-out these economic frost heaves before returning to my mission as a husband, dad, and professional?

A lyric from the title title of Bruce Springsteen's newest album captures my sentiments completely in these contradictory times:  "I'm workin' on a dream, though sometimes it feels so far away." 

February 19, 2009

Winter Begins Its Slow Retreat

Up here, in the northern part of New Hampshire, we hardly notice when crowds gather around a Pennsylvania rodent in early February to determine if Winter will last another six weeks.  For us, it’s a given.  Winter will last another six weeks. 

In fact Winter hardly surrenders until late March or early April in this climate.  And even then, the bet is that cold weather and even the occasional snowstorm will carry forth while the rest of the nation enjoys daffodils amidst their Easter egg hunts. 

Not here.  My kids have always hunted for chocolate eggs and jelly beans when the ground stood cold, hard, and frozen on Easter.  Halloween is occasionally warm in northern New Hampshire, but Easter?  Never.

Even so, the signs that Winter has begun its annual retreat from our landscape are unmistakable. 

It starts with the most obvious and welcome of signs:  Mr. Sun.  By now, the Sun’s presence in our life is nearly as strong as it was before Halloween.  Even without the wonderful unfair advantage of Daylight Savings Time, the ground still glows and twinkles at 5:30pm thanks the Sun’s presence.  A full day of skiing no longer ends in the dark.  And a late afternoon cross-country ski has suddenly been extended by hours.  My headlamp hasn’t been used in weeks.  There is daylight, and every day brings more and more warmth and terror to Winter.

And then this:  the Red Sox.  Yes ma’am and sir, please welcome the Home Town Team.  Pitchers and catchers reported about a week ago, and it seems like almost everyone on the roster has made it to Fort Meyer, Florida by now.  There’s Big Papi, wearing shades, looking strong and lean.  Look, there’s Tek, Lowell, Youk, and our MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  The Boston Globe carries daily quotes from Tito, and I’m trying to remember the names of the new players (Scholtz?...National League guy, right?)

My backyard is completely covered in snow.  I’ve not thrown a ball against my aging pitchback since early December, and don’t expect to do so for another month or more.  If I have to walk my dog around the Lyme Common much beyond March, instead of throwing the ball to him via the pitchback, I think both Bear and I will go crazy.  It’s time again for baseball.  It’s time for nine innings of play.  Enough with the four-quarter madness of football and basketball.  Let’s get out there and throw a ball, hit a ball, catch a ball for a bunch of hours, day after day.  

And then, finally, this: fatigue with Winter. 

I know, it sounds heretical.  Fatigue with Winter?  How could it be so?

After all, we ski and snowboard and cross country ski and ice skate and sled and do just about everything there is to do in the snow and ice that dominates a northern New England Winter.  And we love it.  When the first flakes fall in October or November, the whole house explodes.  Kids and parents run outside.  We pull out the winter clothing.  We argue about whose gloves belong to whom.  We wonder what happened to that neck warmer (“that’s mine…..no, it’s not….I know it is mine…” etc).

But by now, we’ve done almost everything Winter could offer.  This Winter has been very strong.  Solid, almost Western-like snow fell throughout January, bringing fresh powder weekend after weekend to the hills of New Hampshire.  It has been so good that I’ve finally gone down every hill on the Dartmouth Skiway (Waterfall was my last double-black diamond to conquer), and even managed to finish a new extension of another double black-diamond, Lower Liftline.  The cross-country skiing has been equally fabulous.  Steady snow and solid grooming have made it a paradise.  Since December, I have often found myself in the office chair on Monday delighted to have simple place to sit for 6-8 hours after a weekend of going up and down snow-covered hills.  I’ve jumped.  I’ve fallen.  I’ve made turns unexpectedly and graciously.  I’ve gotten better and found room for improvement.  I’ve crawled into bed at 9pm at night and felt like it was 1am or later. 

But by now, I feel spent.   Each weekend in the Winter, we wake-up earlier than we doing during the week.  Tonight, with the exception of me, everyone in my family fell asleep by 8:30am.  We’re tired early and early each night.  A wake-up call at 7am feels like a chance to sleep late.   Each of us begins to yearn for mud-season, when the ground is dirt brown and wet and the air humid with 40 degree temps and everything in northern New England is ugly, because it means sleep and no wake-up calls and something called a weekend. 

That day will come.  I know it will.  Until then, we have about six solid weeks of Winter left, and four weeks of improbable, hard-to-predict weather ahead after that.  No one is breaking-out the spring clothes here.  We all know what is ahead.  We’re taking extra cold medicine and getting to bed earlier.  Winter is fading like an old movie star, and we know there’s nothing speedy to either process. 

February 12, 2009

Judd Gregg & the dead Republican Party

The news tonight that New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg has withdrawn as President Obama’s choice for Commerce Secretary comes as no surprise to those of us in the trenches of New Hampshire politics who confront the reality of a dying Republican Party on a daily basis.

Whatever the Republican Party might have been in northern New England 20 or 30 years ago -- moderate in tone, fiscally conservative, socially liberal -- there appear only two national figures today from this region who still represent those positions:  Maine Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

My experience is that far too many Republicans in both New England and throughout the country have been captured by the take no-prisoners mentally led by a troika of Republican ideologues and operatives: most notably, Lee Atwater, Newt Gingrich, and Karl Rove.

Consider Judd Gregg.  He was once a radical fiscal conservative who, as the Granite State governor in the early 1990s, railed against the expansive and expensive ways of the University of New Hampshire during a similar economic downturn.  In that light, Gregg’s silence on fiscal matters was telling during two terms of the Bush administration that saw an expanding federal deficit, fueled by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the favor-the-rich tax cuts.  For a guy who publicly preached Republican values of small government and reduced taxation, Gregg nevertheless felt compelled to support the Bush agenda for eight long years with silence.

Why?

Because that was the game in DC, and Gregg decided he would rather play under the new rules than stand for principle. 

Under the Obama administration, however, the rules today for the Republicans appear far different.  Principles like fiscal responsibility are suddenly in vogue for Republicans.  We’re seeing it here in New Hampshire from John Sununu, Sr. who, like Gregg, remained silent during eight years of federal expansion and fiscal largesse under the Bush administration, but who has come roaring back into the political spotlight in 2009 to complain about Democratic spending both in the Granite State and nationally. 

The irony is that even a few weeks ago, Gregg was prepared to abandon even these principles.  A far greater political principle – personal advancement – was to be considered.  Gregg offered his name to the Obama administration for Commerce Secretary, knowing full well that Obama was a Democratic and he a Republican.  Asked if he could willingly support the President’s agenda, Gregg claimed he could do so in this time of national crisis. 

That was then.  With Republicans closing ranks (except for Collins & Snowe) against the stimulus, Gregg faced a squeeze play.  Would he abandon the Republican party for the principle of national unity, or would he return to the warm embrace of a political party at the expense of national unity?

For the last two years in Lyme, NH, I’ve worked closely with elected officials whose political and party affiliations are far more conservative than my own on matters related to school funding (I’m the chair of the school board here).  As you might expect in a town of less than 2,000 people, our exchanges have been cordial and pleasant.  We’ve worked cooperatively and spoken kindly to one another.  And yet, despite all of the polite talk and attempts to explain the basis upon which our decisions are made, and despite our ability to deliver budgets dramatically lower than previous years, I find these same conservative officials voting against any and all of our budgets in meeting after meeting.

At one point this year, a few of these conservative town officials even voted to fund our school library with a grand total of $1.00.  Although their motion ultimately failed, it nevertheless attracted three votes, all of them from nice, seemingly reasonable conservative elected officials.

So much for bi-partisanship.

The bottom line is that Republican Party is largely dead – not in terms of activists or money, though both are waning.  Instead its values and principles have died, and in the interests of expediency or desire to acquire or retain power, Republican values have withered on the vine.

In this regard, Judd Gregg had a wake up call this week.  Would he trade political advancement for values?  Could he find a way to compromise with those whose political philosophy differs from his own values?  In the end, Gregg did neither.  Like far too many Republicans today, Gregg decided to falsely embrace principles he had long abandoned because there wasn’t sufficient political cover to explain his actions.  At the same time, Gregg and far too many Republicans at the national, state, and local level have willingly forgotten how to compromise or work with officials with different political viewpoints.  They talk bi-partisanship, but can’t walk a mile in the shoes of a Democrat.

That’s a sure sign of a dead political party.  Ultimately, the renaissance of the Democratic Party came because a Vermonter named Howard Dean declared in 2003, at the height of the Bush presidency, that he came to represent “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.”  The irony was, Dean as Governor of Vermont had worked closely with Vermont Republicans and often angered his own party with his moderate views.  At the same time, Dean passed health care and civil rights legislation that was ten years ahead of the rest of the country.  If only the Republicans could find someone like Howard Dean -- who could comprise without abandoning principle -- they might have a chance at legitimacy in 2009.

February 03, 2009

The Bus (or, Behavior in the Obama Era)

In light of the breakdown of Tom Daschle's nomination, and others like it (all of which is brilliantly captured in Steve Pearlstein's column tomorrow in the Washington Post), the conversation I had last week with a local CEO rings incredibly clear and revealing.

This CEO -- who runs a very public enterprise in the Upper Valley with some 150+ employees, who applies the label of "conservative" to political and economic views -- described the mode in which this she or he travels to a very high-powered, regular meeting in New England with some of its best known business leaders.

(If you can't tell, I'm working hard to protect the identity of this CEO.  No pronouns!)

"I take the bus."

Not a limo.  Not a car with a driver.  Not an airplane (even thought the meeting is more than 120 miles from the hometown of this CEO).

"I take the bus."

Why?

"I take the bus because I can get work done, because it's inexpensive, and drops me off very near my hotel and location for the meeting."

For the other CEOs in this highfalutin group, such behavior was unbelievable.  Take the bus?  My oh my!

In fact, this Upper Valley CEO got a lot of grief from the other New England CEOs for taking the bus.  One CEO in this highfalutin group took a helicopter to the meeting.  Many of the others arrive by chauffeured car or limousine.

But bus?

No way.  Not for these guys and gals.

Maybe, however, the tide has turned. 

In light of Tom Daschle's error of hypocrisy  -- who used to boast of his driving a mid-1970s Pontiac more than 200,000 miles, who used to say he wasn't one of those politicans in the limousine class, who did not used to wear red horned-rimmed glasses -- maybe the problem lies in the fact that far too many senior leaders in America (whether it be in politics, business, or other sectors) believe 1) they're entitled to different rules, and 2) favorable treatment comes with the job description of these high-and-mighty jobs.

News flash: Those days are over.  It's a brown bag world, even for the Masters of the Universe.  

For too long, the CEO mindset has swayed both the shareholders and boards of leading corporations and other organizations in this nation.  President Obama has set a high standard, and found some of the most loyal and capable (especially in the case of Daschle) people in his administration to be wanting. 

So be it. 

It's high time we applied a simple principle: to whom much is given, much is expected. 

I applaud this Upper Valley CEO and hope other leaders will do the same:  get on the bus.

January 25, 2009

Winter

Tonight, as I walked my dog, Bear, from our house around the Lyme Common and back, a light snow fell.   

This was day was like any other in Winter 2008-2009. 

The day began today at 6am.  I woke and discovered it was -14 degrees Fahrenheit outside.  In the darkness, we stumbled and dressed and cursed the early hour.  We found our way to the kitchen.  We drank tea, ate sugar food (doughnuts, cereal), and got into the car.  We were headed for the hills – this time, Mount Sunapee for a day of ski racing.  Yesterday it was Burke Mountain in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom.  A week ago, it was Ragged Mountain in Danbury, NH.  On so on.

This has been an amazing Winter in northern New England.  Amazing, not because of the snow fall – which has been solid -- but because of the consistency of the thermometer. 

With the exception of a few days around Christmas, everyday since early December has been below freezing, and many of them far below the comfort zone of 15 degrees Fahrenheit.  For the most part, snow has fallen and stayed.  None of this snow-thaw-freeze cycle so typical of more recent northern New England Winters, particularly in the era of global warming.

This Winter has just been solid cold. 

So, what does that mean?

It means there’s been no relief from the dry air.  My skin cracks and breaks every other day.  I rub and pour and rub moisturizers over my skin without any sense of relief.  I ride our indoor bicycle for the sheer joy of feeling sweat dripping down my back and sides and front.

It means I feel no regret in wearing as many layers as necessary to play outdoors.  Fashion, be damned!

Yesterday was one of the finest days of riding I’ve experienced ever.  We were at Burke Mountain, which is one of the purest places to ski or ride in the Winter.  The temps were bitter:  upon arrival at 8:15am or so, I think the register in my car suggested an outdoor temp of some 2 degrees Fahrenheit.  And that’s not counting the wind. 

I donned layer after layer, and jumped aboard the chair lift.  I felt like a marshmallow with all of my layers, but so what?  I was warm. 

It means I wear funny colored ski socks to work.  One morning I found myself wearing something equivalent to white socks with black pants and shoes in a meeting.  The only thing missing from my wardrobe that day was horn-rimmed glasses. 

It means that if you want to sleep-in on a weekend, go to bed early.  We have three ski racers in our family, and virtually every weekend brings an earlier wake-up time than during the week.

It means we eat four meals a day.  Breakfast at 6:30am.  Lunch at 11:30am.  Big snack at 3:30pm.  Dinner at 6:30pm.

It means I know how to tune (sharpen and wax) three skis in an hour.

And as the year progresses, as the sun stays longer and longer, it means there is more time to enjoy the snow and colors of light which come from the setting sun.  After a day on the hill, there is no greater joy than a mellow cross-country ski in the falling light of a late Winter day.  Snow is an incredible illuminator.  The woods seem less foreboding in this season.  Instead of being dense and dark, there is a lightness to the forest in Winter.  Snow softens and brightens the thicket everywhere. 

It means realizing that this season dominates our calendar in northern New England.  November is pre-Winter – cold temps, but not a lot of snow.  Our first ski/ride of the season occurs that Thanksgiving weekend.  The solid Winter season runs from December thru March.  And April?  Whether it’s mud season or not, it’s as transitional a month as November.  Which means, in one form or another, Winter is a part of northern New England for six months:  November thru April. 

The snow banks around my house are at least four feet high tonight.  The ground is solid.  It is cold.  There is at least four feet of cold hard snow outside my front door.  This is Winter in northern New England.  It is a season that tests and rewards.  Your budget, patience, and heartiness are examined closely.  Two weeks ago, on the coldest morning of the year so foar (-20 degrees Fahrenheit), two small batteries in our heater failed, rendering the downstairs portion of the house to some 50 degrees Fahrenheit indoors.  It took all day for the house to slowly warm itself back to 68 degrees.  Patience?

And yet, I would not trade Winter in northern New England for all of Florida.  It teaches me more about myself and my neighbors than I would ever know in a warmer climate.    Out here, there is less margin for forgiveness or obfuscation.  A person’s true self emerges despites the layers of clothing.

Finally, it means that Winter – for all of its cold and hardness – offer as much promise as the sweet corn of summer.  Sweeping through a glade, eating spicy chili, staring into the sky as the blue sky melts into the white snow – all of this is a part of Winter.  I would not trade these moments for anything. 

Wonderful Winter.

January 19, 2009

Bush's Last Day (and Mine)

If you’re a Democratic activist, tomorrow marks the last day when George W. Bush can be President of the United States of America.  It’s a day for celebration.  It’s a day for joy.  Not only is Bush gone, but the best possible man on the planet to replace him, Barack Obama of Chicago, Illinois, will be sworn into the nation’s highest office at noon tomorrow. 

For eight long years, we on the patriotic Democratic wing of the Democratic Party have worked hard to end the reign of George the II, and restore Democratic principles and priorities to the nation.  Thanks to people like Governor Howard Dean of Vermont, we got a chance to articulate our principles and, in his role as DNC Chair, implement tactics (like the 50-state strategy) that brought the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to power in 2008.

So, in this apparent moment of glory and celebration, why I am a bit misty-eyed?

The answer is simple, sudden, and expected.  It came Sunday afternoon, late in the day, after the snow had fallen, after the J3 Ford Sayre racers had bombed down the slalom course at Whaleback Mountain, and were preparing to leaving for a five-hour trip north – way north – that same day for a two-day Super-G training camp and race at SugarLoaf Mountain in Maine.

My daughter, Hannah, all of 13-and-a-half years, was ready to board a rented van alongside nine other ski racers, all similarly bedecked in snow/ski/racing/cool gear.  Like most families in this cohort, our day began at 6am with yet another early morning weekend wakeup call.  Some 11 hours later, both parents and their offspring gathered in the parking lot of a local establishment to make the final preparations for the trip.  Amidst the frantic talk and nervous chatter, I could see the eyes of parents widen and their throats tighten.  It was late.  They would be driving for some 250+ miles, way north, on a night when the snow continued to fall, when the visibility wasn’t great, when the easiest thing in the world would be to have your teenager at home.

But that’s not where I was, and that’s not where these other parents were.  Maybe, unexpectedly, this was our last night to be truly and solely parents.  Maybe on this night we realized an uncomfortable truth:  that from hereon, parenting was out of our direct control.  As the van drove away, as I counted the hours until I thought Hannah might actually be near her destination, I realized that what I missed, in addition to my daughter, was control.

When she was 10 or 8 or 6 or even younger, I could manage and direct virtually everything in her life.  Now was different.  Now people who might seem like strangers to me – her skiing coach, his assistant, maybe even some of the kids with whom she was travelling – were intimate and important companions in her life. 

What?!!!!!

You can’t possibly be serious, I thought to myself.  Let my precious little girl alone with these people, for this long, with only a modicum of rules and boundaries and control.

It can’t be happening.

Only it is, and it must.  To grow at this age, I realized – later, much later, around 3am, as I awoke and wondered around my house in a fitful burst of energy – requires extension beyond parents, beyond the home.

It means having to pee in the snow bank alongside your friends.  It happened with Hannah on this trip.  Would I permit it?  No, of course not, but that’s the point.

It means having a really tough crash on the snow course. It happened to Hannah on this trip.  Would I permit it?  No, of course not, but that’s the point.

And that’s just the news from Day One.  What will happen tomorrow?

I found myself today emailing my daughter with questions I swore I’d never ever ever ever ask in this situation.

1)    Did you get enough sleep?
2)    Did you get enough to eat?

Ohmigod, Dad, can you stop embarrassing me, like now?

No.  I can’t.  Last night was my final night as a parent, complete and toto.  Hereon, I am sharing you with the world.  I will never stop being your parent.  I will never stop loving you, Hannah (and your brothers, Jacob and Noah).  Regardless of what you do or say or think, my love for you is absolute.

But what is not absolute is my ability to control your life.  At some point, reluctantly and with a great deal of fear and worry, I must begin to let go.  It’s harder than I realized, even though plenty of wise people (like my own Mother) told me so.  I look back at pictures when you were in diapers and needed to be fed, and think those days seem so easy. 

Maybe so.  Maybe not.  Maybe raising children is hard work regardless of their age.  Whether they are 2 or 20 years old, children present challenges that arrive full-stop and unapologetic.  They offer the fullest and most complete way of defining yourself and life in general. 

So tomorrow comes, and by noon Barack Obama will be sworn-in as our 44th President.  I can’t wait.  He and his family, and his administration, will bring great things to our country, and demand great and wonderful service from us, its citizens.  In four years, I expect this nation will be in remarkable shape because of his leadership.

Tomorrow comes, and my daughter will come home.  As she grows, she will demand more from me than I am perhaps ready to give.  Within about four short years, she will be ready for college.  Tomorrow night, however, I will met her in a parking lot and bring her home, and maybe even get the chance to tuck her into bed.  It’s a night numbered.  It’s a night not forever. 

On this night, I’m not the only one with mixed emotions.

December 25, 2008

Holiday Greetings in the Age of Facebook

I'm guilty.  Maybe you are, too.

Guilty of sending a once-a-year holiday greeting to friends around the globe.  A holiday greeting replete with either a single photograph (large) or several photographs (small).  The pictures and greeting are all designed to say the same thing:  still here, getting older, kids getting bigger, hope you are well.

And then, with the greeting and accompanying photograph comes the holiday message.  It's usually a one-page synopsis of the past year.  Something like -- Jimmie has graduated from 8th grade, Sarah is entering junior nationals in (fill-in-the-blank-sport), and Mom/Betsy still enjoys her job as a (fill-in-the-blank occupation).  Like the holiday greeting and photograph, it's meant to convey a simple message of stability and pace, the slow/rapid passage of time, and a desire to connect -- maybe just once a year -- with people who had some deeper connection in our lives a while ago.

Facebook seems to have changed all of that impetus.  Instead of once-a-year holiday messages, I'm updating my "status" all the time, sometimes on a daily basis, to so-called "friends," the ones either brave enough to ask me to be their friend or to accept my invitation.

As a result of becoming a "friend" of someone, I get a series of updates...

This friend is glad to be home in his bed after a long series of flight delays.

This friend is closing on a house purchase.

This friend is going for a run.

Don't get me wrong.  I think Facebook is pretty cool.  It's wonderful to find people who either meant something to you long ago, or who mean something to you now, and keep connected thru small versions of the annual holiday greeting.  There's some talk of addiction to Facebook, wherein individuals get absorbed in detailing their own lives online (which seems like a pursuit bound for failure, e.g., "I'm online with Facebook writing about my life on Facebook") or pursuing others to join them in the quest for friends and followers (in the case of another popular, and potentially all-encompassing social network application, Twitter). But for the most part, if you are an active adult with a decent portfolio of responsibilities and interests, there's only so much time for documenting your off-line life to the on-line world of friends and followers.  

I think the more interesting question is, what does Facebook do to our memories of friendships and our attempts, through holiday cards, to keep them alive?

Thomas Wolfe wrote famously about our inability to go home again, and yet this very holiday weekend, my wife and I stood in the church where we were married, in her adopted hometown in Vermont, during the Christmas service and I marveled at how I "knew" or at least recognized many of the people in the crowd.  The minister who married us.  The choir leader.  The soloist.  The choir member who went to high school with my wife. 

The funny thing is, these people and I are not exchanging anything.  We're not Facebook "friends."  We're not even holiday-card exchangers.  We see each other once or more a year.  We nod.  Sometimes we speak.  Maybe even shake hands. 

Maybe memory has a more powerful boundary to it than we realize.  If time recedes our accurate recollection of past events, that memory still persists and despite all of the efforts made to reconnect -- whether it's Facebook or holiday cards -- most memories remain a walled garden of sorts. A place where we deliberately don't go.  If holiday greetings have a standard narrative ("all's well here, how about you?"), maybe Facebook is similarly doomed.  My status can be updated in Facebook, but do you really know me any better?

Perhaps the missing ingredient with Facebook, and with holiday greetings, too, is time.  We knew these people, and spent time with them.  Unstructured time.  Work time.  Sports time.  Love time.  Student time.

Now it's different.  We barely have enough time to manage our lives, let alone reach out to others.  And forget about including others alongside in that experience.  So we rely on 140 character bites (Twitter) and short sentences on Facebook to convey meaning and connection.  It's not much better than a holiday greeting card, and certainly no worse. 

Look, Facebook is great.  And I love reading the holiday cards we get each year.  I even enjoy writing our annual holiday message.  But none of my friends should think these efforts, despite all of the good intentions which surround them, really do the trick of bringing us closer.  We are more updated, but we are not together again. 

Twenty-six years ago, I sat in the clean, empty two-bedroom apartment that was Ground Zero for my four closet college friends, my girlfriend, their girlfriends, and the friends of the boyfriends and girlfriends.  We had graduated from college the day before and in an hour or two, we had to vacate our home.  In that narrow window of time, when our "house" had never been cleaner, I remember thinking, this time will never come back again.  

Sure, we had good times again.  Reunions and sleepovers and weddings and even an adventure or two.  But that particular time -- that committed devotion to one another -- would not and could not return. 

It's great to get the holiday cards from my college friends.  And it's fun to get the sometimes daily updates from Facebook.  But our memories remain untouched, and my connection to these people remains largely untouched, too.  If we want to change that condition, something more powerful than a good piece of software will be needed. 

December 20, 2008

A quick post on a cold night

It's past 9:30pm on Saturday, December 20th, and I am bushed, beaten, but happy.  It's been a full day of winter, and I'm ready for the soft relief of a pillow and comforter.

Last weekend, the ice storm from H-E-double-hockey-sticks descended on New England.  While Lyme and most towns in the Upper Valley avoided the brunt of the storm, it kept all of us occupied enough to make the joy of winter seem out of reach.

Not today.  We awoke to some 14 inches of fresh, fluffy powder on the ground, cool temps, no wind, and opening day at the Dartmouth Skiway.  Far from the burden of ice and no power,  we schussed down the slopes and glided thru powder that nearly reached my knees.  Everyone looked good on Winslow Hill today.  It was rock-star skiing and boarding time.

Mid-day came, and it was time to leave the feathery world of the Dartmouth Skiway for the hard surfaces on which a basketball game is played.  No good news here, at least a first glance.  The middle school boys team I coach got walloped, at least in terms of the score.  But what was amazing, frankly, was how solidly we played despite being overwhelmed in terms of talent and experience.  These are the games when a coach can see progress being made, even if the players cannot.

Afternoon comes and it's off to cross-country ski, this time thru the generously tracked hills and valleys of a Lyme landowner.  Despite the cools temps (16 F), the x-country skiing was fantastic.  Lots of snow, beautiful trails (cleared just today of some 13 trees felled in last week's storm), and the nice company of a fellow Lymie also out for a quick ski before dark.

Upon getting home, it was time to do some damage control.  More snow -- maybe a foot, maybe more -- is expected tomorrow.  So it's onto the roof above my office (where I write now) to clear the snow and ice.  An hour later, and it feels like I've moved snow heaven & earth.  After eight years of clearing this roof, it feels like I know every trick to loosen the frozen white stuff.  Still, it's work and when I repair inside, my muscles and bones are cold and aching. 

After making dinner for two adults, three teenagers, and two kids (and eating vast quantities of food myself), it's back outside to clear more snow from our back porches.  Though the snow remained light and fluffy, there was still some 14 inches of it to be shoveled, pushed, and cracked.  By this time, after nearly 12 hours of being in the snow in one form or another, the stuff feels like an old shoe.  

And then, finally today, a walk in the dark after dinner with my dear dog, Bear, in the beautiful snow surrounding the Lyme Common.   While we walk, he barks at shadows and I trudge ahead.  I see plowed driveways and Christmas tree lights.  I feel the sting of cold on my cheek and the crunch of the snow under my boots.  There is a lone star visible in the sky.  He imagines seeing another dog that deserves a bark.

Funny thing is, come winter, especially winters like last year and maybe this year, I spend as much time outdoors as I do in the summer.  With the right amount of snow and cold, the season becomes alive with possibility and promise.  In those circumstances, winter is a joy.  It becomes an unbridled feeling of landscape and contact with the earth, a time when generations come together to enjoy a special place, an opportunity to find just the right intersection of clothing, athletics, and poetry.

I'm ready for bed, but let's hope the snow keeps coming.

Snow

Note to readers...I wrote this post more than two weeks ago. 

A very quick post to say simply that the first real snow of 208-2009 is here!

First-snow-2008It began this morning about 8:30am, as I sat in a conference room overlooking the Connecticut River.  Small flakes, lots of them, flying and settling and dropping, dropping, dropping onto the ground.  By 10am, the ground was covered, the skies were still grey, and the snow showed every sign of falling throughout the day, albeit in modest, early Winter-fashion.

By 7pm or so tonight, the storm had begun to increase and as the picture shows, we've begun to get some modestly decent snowfall.  This particular snowfall is a bit too wet and crunchy to accumulate an impressive amount -- in fact, it almost feels like man-made snow in its consistency.  But the the bottom line is we have an honest-to-goodness, first-of-the-season snowfall.

What a marvel!  What a delight!

Driving around the Upper Valley tonight and, later, walking around the Lyme Common, I was reminded of the peacefulness and beauty which comes with each and every snowfall. The snow is clean.  Everything it touches seems beautiful again.  Lights from houses sparkle in an entirely different way in the snow.  For myself, at least, there is an incredible sense of renewal with each snowfall, but especially the first major storm of the season.

Real storm clouds are ahead.  The auto bailout is in serious trouble in Washington.  The World Bank is predicting severe economic recession among emerging economies worldwide.  There are quiet whispers even among Obama economic team members of double-digit unemployment and the kind of recession that defies response from a simple stimulus package.  The weeks and months ahead are genuinely troublesome. 

But on this night, in a small corner of New England, a few inches of clean, beautiful snow fell unencumbered of the worries of humanity.  To walk, touch, taste it was a delight.  A joy.  A needed break.  

December 11, 2008

Snow

A very quick post to say simply that the first real snow of 208-2009 is here!

First-snow-2008It began this morning about 8:30am, as I sat in a conference room overlooking the Connecticut River.  Small flakes, lots of them, flying and settling and dropping, dropping, dropping onto the ground.  By 10am, the ground was covered, the skies were still grey, and the snow showed every sign of falling throughout the day, albeit in modest, early Winter-fashion.

By 7pm or so tonight, the storm had begun to increase and as the picture shows, we've begun to get some modestly decent snowfall.  This particular snowfall is a bit too wet and crunchy to accumulate an impressive amount -- in fact, it almost feels like man-made snow in its consistency.  But the the bottom line is we have an honest-to-goodness, first-of-the-season snowfall.

What a marvel!  What a delight!

Driving around the Upper Valley tonight and, later, walking around the Lyme Common, I was reminded of the peacefulness and beauty which comes with each and every snowfall. The snow is clean.  Everything it touches seems beautiful again.  Lights from houses sparkle in an entirely different way in the snow.  For myself, at least, there is an incredible sense of renewal with each snowfall, but especially the first major storm of the season.

Real storm clouds are ahead.  The auto bailout is in serious trouble in Washington.  The World Bank is predicting severe economic recession among emerging economies worldwide.  There are quiet whispers even among Obama economic team members of double-digit unemployment and the kind of recession that defies response from a simple stimulus package.  The weeks and months ahead are genuinely troublesome. 

But on this night, in a small corner of New England, a few inches of clean, beautiful snow fell unencumbered of the worries of humanity.  To walk, touch, taste it was a delight.  A joy.  A needed break.  

December 10, 2008

Cold

Two nights ago, our house was cold.  I mean, cold.

The core part of our house was built in the 1850s and on nights like that one, when the outside temperature had fallen to 7 F° and the wind blew hard and strong, there wasn’t a lot we can do to make the house feel Florida warm.

Sure, the addition we built a few years brought good insulation and windows to that section of our home.  But in the core, where we eat and where I cook and write, the windows leaked like sieves.  A couple of mornings ago, in the midst of this cold snap, one of the windows in my office – which used to be our mudroom and entrance to the house – actually had ice form on the inside of it.

Last year we blew insulation into our garage and the storage area below our living room.  It made a huge difference.  Suddenly floors and walls that had been cold to the touch felt comfortable in even bare feat.  But this year, we gambled wrong and pre-bought propane at the peak of the market price.  As a result, we’ve been keeping the house deliberately cool.  Thermostats throughout the house have been set 65 F°, and so far it’s been just fine.

But not tonight.  Or last night.  When I awoke a few mornings ago and went downstairs, I entered a world with a maximum temperature of 58 F°.  Chilly! 

So we donned vests, ate our breakfast quickly, and left for work and school – hoping to find buildings warmer than our own home.  I glimpsed my two boys walking to school that morning.  Although bundled against the cold, they nevertheless walked backwards against the wind.  I made a similar journey on my trek from a distant parking lot to my office that same day.  I arrived with numb fingers and expect my two sons felt a similar sting as they pulled off their gloves.

On nights like that one, when I try to throw the baseball against the pitch-back for my dog, Bear, there was no snap in the return of the ball.  The pitch-back itself was fatigued with cold. I wrap myself in layers and try to imitate proper pitching former, but between the gloves on my hand, the bundle of clothes around me, and the unsure footing which comes from hard ground, ice, snow, and big boots, the result is an awkward throw which frequently misses the pitch-back and more often errantly lands in the woods behind it.  Welcome to the frozen grapefruit league. 

As I kissed three little heads a few nights ago, I noticed how the layers of clothing and blankets seemed to increase from just a few days earlier.  And yet, frankly, there wasn’t much complaining.  Maybe it’s because we’ve seen a lot worse.

I remember five or so winters ago, when we endured several weeks of temperatures that fell below -20 F° every night and daylight temperatures in the single digits.  I remember taking loyal (and I mean, loyal) friends from Boston to the Dartmouth Skiway to schuss downhill on days that took your breath away.  When there was no one else skiing.  When you took one run and then came indoors. 

We live in New Hampshire.  The state motto is “Live Free or Die,” but frankly, it would be more accurate and fair if our state motto became “Live Cold or Die.”  In some eight years of living in the great Granite State, I’ve learned to embrace cold as a way of life.  It’s not ideal, but it’s not so bad easier, at least not for us.  We get cold, but for all of the complaining, we’ve got a pretty light burden in this kind of weather.

Far too many New Hampshire and Vermont residents face nights like tonight in far worse circumstances.  Judging only by the absence of insulation I see in their homes, there are probably thousands of families in the Upper Valley tonight where the indoor temperature is far less than what I am experiencing right now. 

Our house, with its drafty windows, is replete with plastic and blankets across drafty openings.  We’re trying to find inexpensive ways to keep the expensive heat from leaking to the unforgiving outdoors.  I touch the plastic on the windows in my office and find them cold to the touch.  But I wonder what sensations are being felt on cold nights by kids and their parents whose homes are far less insulated.  Will the kids go to school hungry?  Will they be ready to learn?  And will their parents be ready to handle the cold road ahead?

One of the truths I’ve learned about the cold is that it can quickly shutdown the most reasonable parts of our humanity.  People will do just about anything to feel warm.  The warmth can be physical, it can be emotional, and it can even be visual.  But if people perceive that warmth has gone away, and won’t return for a while, a certain desperateness emerges.  A dicey picture results.  To whom or what will people turn in these frozen circumstances.  Food?  Alcohol?  Another person? 

I won’t pretend to know the answers to these questions, but I can suggest some better answers.  We need more energy efficient, affordable homes.  We need people to work harder and study smarter to avoid the economics of holding-on-by-a-finger-nail middle-class living.  We need alternatives to LPG, oil, and coal that don’t harm the environment and provide heating comfort at a reasonable price. 

And finally, on cold nights, we probably need each other.  Sure, it’s sounds kinda kumbaya, but so what.  On nights like this, when the pitch-back isn’t working too well and I need to walk my dog, Bear, around the Lyme Common for his exercise, I am reminded of the simple values of community.  I see the lights of the holiday tree on the Lyme Common, the lights surrounding trees and porches and fences of simple houses, and the quiet stars in the cold night sky.  I know who lives in every lit house.  I can tell you something about their politics, quirks, and contributions to our town. 

Warmth comes from many places.  I am grateful for my furnace and income for providing the heat which I enjoy.   I also deeply appreciative of the community in which I live, and the bonds which exists among us in good weather and bad. 

December 01, 2008

The Ordinary & Simple

This weekend, on an early Winter night, as I sat on the bed of my eldest child, quietly listening to her daily prayers and (as you shall see) sneaking a quick lullaby of my own into the affairs of the evening, it occurred to me that this moment of perfect harmony shall very soon disappear for good. 

Tonight, as I sat there croaking a simple melody and before I could do anything about it, a very mixed but strong feeling came over me, a sensation filled with emotion, joy, and regret.

What was once a daily ritual of prayers and two quick lullabies at night has understandably begun to recede in the face of the maturity of my daughter.  At the age of thirteen, my daughter, frankly, no longer needs me to sing her lullabies at night.  She only just barely needs someone like me to remind her to pray at night, and probably that is a stretch, too.  By mutual agreement, my lullaby nights have shrunk to twice a week (Wednesdays and Sundays).  The indulgence is my daughter’s to give.  I am merely grateful recipient, and on nights like tonight, when it isn’t a Wednesday or Sunday, when I can sneak a song into the evening routine, it’s an evening that’s hard to forget. 

But whether this was Wednesday, Sunday, or any other night, the fact remains that these songs and my presence at her bedside will soon no longer be needed.  For the past 4,700 nights, give or take a hundred or so, I’ve been at the bedside of my daughter, not just singing songs or saying prayers or talking about the events in the recent past or the future to come.  I’ve simply been there.  Night after night, with a kiss on the check, with a pat on the head, with an eye on a person who has grown from diapers to braces and whose books at night have stretched from “Good Dog, Carl” to “Animal Farm,” I’ve been there.  Simply been there. 

I was there when she was sick.  I was there when she did not want to see me.  I was there to read a book until I fell asleep beside her, snoring away while she wondered what came next.  I was there to laugh, to giggle and joke about classmates and movies and fill-in-the-blank quizzes from books, the kind that predict what kind of person you might become.  I was there to try and answer questions, about everything from school homework to the Middle East, from soccer tryouts to school dances. 

I’m sure in the future that the questions will continue and so will our talks.  But over time, I’m also certain that less and less of these talks will occur at her bedside.

That’s perfectly OK.  That’s the way it ought to be.

But can I be given, for a just moment, an instance of memory and regret?

There are times in my life when I think of my father, who died more than five years ago, and wonder what he misses most.  And while I have no doubt that he simply misses each of us, his sons and daughters, and his wife, too, and the simple joy of companionship, I also wonder if he misses even more ordinary things.  Like pumpkin pie.  A good football game outside.  A funny movie.  Spicy food.

I don’t know what the future holds.  Regardless of my personal beliefs, I also don’t know what really comes after our death.  But what I do know, on this day, in this hour, is that the preciousness of simply and ordinary things cannot be denied.  In our darkest hours, at the times when hope fades quickly, I believe it is memories of moments like these which carry the greatest meaning for many of us.  It moments like these when we truly understand the majesty of life and love.

To be certain, there are other important things in life that matter.  Like the Ten Commandments.  And the Golden Rule. 

But maybe, just maybe, there are things in life which matter just as much as these documents of wisdom. 

Like when your son sits on your lap at the dinner table.  Or when you read a book together in bed.  Or when you hold his hand in the middle of the night as he’s sick.  I remember everytime, and I mean everytime, I’ve placed one of my kids behind the wheel of our car and helped them drive some 500 yards home, them working the steering wheel, me working the gas and brakes.  There’s a kind of nervousness at first – like, how am I going to do this?  And then slowly, slowly, confidence builds.  The road becomes easier to navigate.  And soon, whether it’s my daughter or one of my sons, the challenge of driving seems conquerable.  Hard?  Maybe.  Impossible?  No.

There’s a night ahead when I won’t put any of my kids to bed.  They will be grown and while the moment won’t carry much much majesty for them, it will for me.  On that night, like this one, I will step back and stare at the stars.  Stare until I can’t seen any further.  Stare because the simple and ordinary thing which was such a part of my life is gone, never to return.  

November 29, 2008

Glenshaw 10-K about 10Ks, 2007-2008

Most investors know that the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) requires every public company to disclose information about its performance on an annual basis.  Known as the 10-K, this form permits shareholders to learn more than they might from a glossy annual report.

My last post suggested the results from my recent roadrace would be shared with the blessed readers of this blog.  So, in a sense, this is my full disclosure statement about my performance in 10k roadraces over the last year.

Until I ran in the Hanover Turkey Trot 10k last November, it had been years (maybe 20?), since I had run this distance in a roadrace.  I vaguely remember running a 10K race in Washington, DC near RFK Stadium and the Capitol, and finishing some 45-48 minutes later and considerably out of breath.  Fast forward to the present: while the years have passed, I've admittedly gotten a bit stronger and surer of foot.  I do sprint triathlons without any trouble and am probably in the best shape of my life.

So, it was no surprise that last November 2007 saw me post what a remarkable time in my first 10k race at the Hanover 10K Turkey Trot.  I ran the race in just over 40 minutes at a pace of 6 minutes, 32 seconds per mile.  These were times I never ever saw before.  I was completely finished after the race, during the race itself, it felt as if I was floating.  Looking back, the result is one I wonder if it will ever be repeated by this old body.

Fast forward to my next 10K, this time the Tuck School "Run for the Kids" in May this year.  I was training for triathlons, had not given the race much thought, showed up, and ran...kinda disappointing.  I finished in 44 minutes, one second -- a race pace of 7 minutes, 5 seconds per mile.  This was way, way behind my time just eight months earlier.  Was I washed-up already?

So, here comes last weekend, and my final race of the season.  Three sprint triathlons, one off-road triathlon, and two 10k races kept me busy from May to November 2008, and it was time (frankly) to ease back on the training and into the joys of holiday food (pumpkin pie, good wine, and more pumpkin pie).  The only problem lay in my training this Fall. 

Between the 2008 Election, work, family obligations, and a small bout of the flu, I was not able to train for this final race as I did last year.  In fact, just a few days before the race, I felt very uneasy about my prospects.  I felt weak and as I looked ahead to the weather forecast for the race, felt even weaker.  Unlike last year, which I recall being in the high 40s or low 50s in sunny skies, this year's race promised to be held in conditions resembling late January in northern New Hampshire: temperatures between 20-25 F, with a strong brisk wind in various conditions. 

Yikes. 

Come last weekend, and there I was on the starting line bedecked in full winter running gear.  "Bang," went the gun and away we went.  Last May, on what would eventually be seen as a slow run, I knew in the first five minutes that I would be slow.  The energy just wasn't there.  But this time, I felt different.  Sure it was cold.  Really cold.  Sure, I was wearing more clothes than usual for a race.  But my lungs were warm, I felt plenty of energy inside of me, and a quiet calm -- the latter being perhaps the condition for racing.

Bottom line:  I finished the race in 43 minutes, 21 seconds, or 6:59 per mile.  Given my overall physicall state, and the weather, I was totally thrilled with the result.  No one in their right mind would ever consider encouraging me to be anything other than an enthusiastic amateur competitor, but on days like last Sunday, when the wind is howling and it's not clear if you got the stuff, it's incredibly reassuring to run hard and succeed over a 10k course.

The interesting thing about all three races?  Regardless of the specifics, I finished basically in the top third of my age group in these races.  That's both good and bad news.  Good, because I can beat 2/3 of my colleagues.  Bad, because somehow, another 1/3 of my colleagues is beating me pretty handily.

What should I do?

Get another helping of pumpkin pie,and then get back to training.

November 22, 2008

The Test

We are in the early stages of a genuine worldwide economic crisis.  The stock market continues to crash, unemployment figures increase month after month, banks and major industries (e.g., automobiles) are failing, and Washington seems unprepared to respond (at least until the third week of January 2009).

It's less than a week before Thanksgiving, and it seems all too easy to say there's not a lot for which to be thankful on this holiday.

Perhaps.

Here's what I say.

This crisis is a test.

It's not the test we wanted. 

It's not the test we deserve. 

It's not coming at an opportune time. 

It's going to be a hard test, too.  Maybe, in fact, it will be one of the hardest tests we face in our lifetime.

But let's face facts: this test is here, and we cannot avoid it. 

We can moan and whine and complain, but at the end of the day -- even on a day like today, which in northern New Hampshire was cold and windy and harsh -- we have to face this test with everything we got.

When I was a young boy, I feared most tests and I especially feared tests like the one before all of us.  Had I studied enough?  Was I ready to perform?  Could I stand the pressure?

Later, as time matured me and settled nerves, I learned not to fear tests.  In fact, tests became an occasion.  Tests became a chance to show teachers (and maybe myself) what I was capable of doing. 

I won't kid you and act like I learned to love tests, but the time came when I was no longer worried about them.  Bring 'em on.  I was smart and experienced to believe that under most circumstances, I would do well in a test.

And frankly, it's that kind of thinking we need in America today.  I see it almost everyday in Barack Obama.  He's got the quiet confidence of someone who has faced test after test after test, and emerged better and stronger for the challenge.

Here's what I know, too.  In times like this, when a test occurs under extreme conditions, some people and some organizations and some entities not only survive, but they actually thrive.  Cast ahead to 2012.  Read the headlines then, and my guess is that you will see some nations, banks, companies, non-profits, and individuals actually get ahead despite the turmoil.

Will we be one of them?

The answer depends a great deal on our ability to understand the challenge ahead.  Is it a test, or is it a doomsday scenario?  Is it a chance to make necessary changes, or the occasion to hunker-down in hopes that the storm passes? 

Tomorrow I will enter a 10K race that should, by all measures, go badly.  A year ago I ran this same race in a frankly surprising strong fashion.  I finished 29th out of some 170 racers with a time of 40 minutes, and some 30 seconds -- a pace of 6 minutes, 30 seconds per mile.  This was not just a personal best, but unheard time and pace for me (why didn't I run this fast in high school?). 

I don't recall the exact weather a year ago, but my memory suggests it was nowhere near what is predicted for tomorrow's race: temperatures in the mid-20s, and a slight breeze. 

In fact, I think the race tomorrow will be the coldest I've ever run.  On days like this, at least for me, even on a training run, I start slow.  My lungs need to get warm, and it takes at least a mile or so before I am ready to pickup the pace.  Last year, in this race, when it was a lot warmer, I remember starting fast from the beginning.  Not tomorrow.

It's not the race I want.  I've not been able to train like I want, either, for this race.  I got sick a few weeks ago, and work has been busy, so I've not had the time to train as I did last year.  I'm not really ready for tomorrow. 

But, like this economic crisis, it's the test I face.  Will I do as well last year?  Almost certainly not.  But will it be a complete disaster? 

Check back here to see how I did. 

November 18, 2008

A Wonderfully Cold November Night

This is it.

The start of Winter. 

It came today, with snow and wind in the morning -- enough to cause the Lyme Listserve to crackle with announcements of slippery roads, skidding cars, and snow tires.  During daylight hours, the wind blustered and blew, the temperature hovered around freezing, and up here -- at the mid-point of the Granite State, between the extreme cold of Mt. Washington and the suburban warmth of Manchester & the Derrys along I-93 -- it was a kinda cold-all-day-long, kinda day.  By nightfall, when it became apparent that the morning snow would not melt, that the ground was still really hard, and that the wind would continue to blow, you could feel the sweet sting in your eyes and face of Winter itself.

In Hanover, at the Dartmouth campus, students walked with a slightly bewildered expression.  Not the seniors, mind you, or the juniors.  But sophomores?  Freshmen?  The look of ohmigod was clearly apparent. 

Not this.  Not this, again.

Everyone else was ready for it.  Or at least, not surprised.  You live in the northern part of New Hampshire, which is the northern part of New England.  It's mid-November.  It will be cold, day and night, from now until the end of March (if you're lucky; mid-April is more likely). 

And frankly, I love it.

For much of the rest of the United States, I suspect (or remember from my days growing-up along in mid-Atlantic states) that Winter remains a season to get thru.  No joy in Winter there.  In most places, Winter is just a series of inconveniences that made you appreciate the 90% humidity to come six months later.

Not here. 

Instead, Winter is its own time.  It's not just a season, but a way of living, of experiencing the natural world, and humanity's effort to adopt to an environment that appears hostile, but maybe is as welcoming as Summer.

Consider the following:  this afternoon, as daylight disappeared, I drove to Oak Hill in Hanover -- home to the Dartmouth Cross Country Ski course -- and got ready for my run.  From Spring until the snow is thick on Oak Hill, I strongly enjoy running and mountain-biking the trails of Oak Hill.  Like most days, I went out there today and changed into my exercise gear in the glory of a port-a-potty.  Unlike most days, though, today was a bit chilly.  But with temps in the low 30s, it was just a bit harder environment in which to undress. 

But darn it, I knew what to wear.  By the time I emerged from the port-a-potty, I had not only changed from business wear (suit, starched shirt, polished shoes) to running gear (tights, running shoes, top, jacket, hat, mittens), but I was warm.  Very, very comfortably warm.  For the next 45 minutes, as I wandered over Oak Hill and dale (literally), even though the Sun sank and my headlight had to be illuminated, there was not a cold part to be found on my body.  It was different, but just as comfortable as running in summer with in running shoes and a pair of shorts. 

And maybe this has been the biggest revelation of all to me about Winter in northern, northern New England: here, I spend as much time outside in the dead of Winter as I do in the heat of Summer.

Sure, the clothes and activities are very, very different.  But Winter is playtime here, just like Summer is playtime -- or considered playtime -- for most people elsewhere in the United States.

So, on this cold November night, when I could feel Winter get a strong grip in the land and in the air, a smile came to my face. 

Despite the dark, despite the cold, there was a different kind of warmth, a different kind of fun to embrace.  And all of it -- all of the next 4.5 months -- lay before me.  Chris, my brother-in-law, says the best day of vacation is the first day. 

Well, today was the first day of Winter Vacation.  To be certain, by then March 2009, I'll be ready for getting on a bike, for jumping in a pool (and later a pond), for running in just a pair of shorts.  But between now and then there is a whole world of Winter fun to join. 

November 12, 2008

On Victory Speeches

Leadership includes many qualities -- such as vision, commitment, and an ability to understand an unfolding situation -- but communication perhaps carries the greatest role for anyone who seeks that responsibility.

Now, everyone knows President-Elect Barack Obama can deliver a great speech.  We also know he is a terrific writer, and consequently a terrific thinker, too.  Obama's facility with words, written and spoken, is a treasure to behold for anyone who enjoys language.

But over the past few years, it's been interesting to note that less attention has been paid to the kind of speech Obama makes in a particular situation.  All great speeches occur in the context of time and place. Sure, over time, that context fades and the words of a particular speech themselves remain, to be repeated in classrooms and read silently with a nod of admiration by future generations.  But in the beginning, on its initial delivery, the speech lives in the present.  And the greatness of a speech first is most often known in that moment.

During this great Presidential campaign, I'd argue that Barack Obama delivered seven great speeches.  Of these seven speeches, five speeches fairly and perhaps predictably fit the time in which they were given.  For instance, at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner speech in Iowa in November 2007, after a night of speeches that left him the last speaker near midnight, Obama separated himself from his chief rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, by saying "This party - the party of Jefferson and Jackson; of Roosevelt and Kennedy - has always made the biggest difference in the lives of the American people when we led, not by polls, but by principle; not by calculation, but by conviction; when we summoned the entire nation to a common purpose - a higher purpose."

Obama's victory speech after the Iowa caucuses in January 2008 came before a national and international audience, and its language soared as high as the enthusiasm of his supporters that night:  "They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided; too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose. But on this January night - at this defining moment in history - you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do."

A few months later, Obama settled nerves surrounding his relationship with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but more importantly re-drew the boundaries of that controversy by reminding people of how race works in America in very complex ways, and how we must face its complexity together in order to continue to form this more perfect union.  It was perhaps the greatest speech given by Obama in the entire campaign, a speech of soaring intellect and subtle grasp, the kind whose brilliance becomes evident with every re-reading.  But in very practical terms, it also effectively ended the Wright controversy and restored ballast to Obama's campaign.

After he secured the Democratic nomination, Obama gave a quiet little speech on Father's Day that began by saying the usual things one might imagine on that day in a Chicago church.  "What makes you a man is not the ability to have a child," Obama said, "it's the courage to raise one." 

Maybe it was because Obama was finally home after a long primary campaign, speaking in a church with his family in front of him, that this speech -- while perfectly fitting its moment -- was also just a little bit different. 

By turns it was playful.

"You know, sometimes I'll go to an eighth-grade graduation and there's all that pomp and circumstance and gowns and flowers. And I think to myself, it's just eighth grade. To really compete, they need to graduate high school, and then they need to graduate college, and they probably need a graduate degree too. An eighth-grade education doesn't cut it today. Let's give them a handshake and tell them to get their butts back in the library!"

But it was also serious in an unusual way.  It was not simply somber about the inadequate ways that men all too often behave -- by not being present in the lives of their children, or by watching ESPN's Sports Center all weekend long -- but in reminding men that more ought to be expected of them than is asked. 

In this speech,, Obama asked men to pass along the value of empathy -- to show children how to see the world from someone else's perspective.  He asked them to give hope to their children, too.  Not in wishful spoonfuls, but as a dose of medicine to better their world instead of simply focusing on themselves.

"When I was a young man, I thought life was all about me – how do I make my way in the world, and how do I become successful and how do I get the things that I want. But now, my life revolves around my two little girls....And what I've realized is that life doesn't count for much unless you're willing to do your small part to leave our children – all of our children – a better world. Even if it's difficult. Even if the work seems great. Even if we don't get very far in our lifetime."

When was the last time you heard Dr. Phil talk like that?

Of course, the fifth great speech Obama gave that neatly fit its time was his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention.  Before 70,000 people on a summer night in a stadium a mile high in the sky, and before millions more people on television, Obama pointed to the grandstand and, like Babe Ruth, hit a home run.  

"This too is part of America's promise - the promise of a democracy where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort.

I know there are those who dismiss such beliefs as happy talk. They claim that our insistence on something larger, something firmer and more honest in our public life is just a Trojan Horse for higher taxes and the abandonment of traditional values. And that's to be expected. Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

You make a big election about small things."

(It was here -- with memories of Swift Boats and Willie Horton, and anticipated memories of Bill Ayers -- that Obama really got me.)

"And you know what - it's worked before. Because it feeds into the cynicism we all have about government. When Washington doesn't work, all its promises seem empty. If your hopes have been dashed again and again, then it's best to stop hoping, and settle for what you already know.

I get it. I realize that I am not the likeliest candidate for this office. I don't fit the typical pedigree, and I haven't spent my career in the halls of Washington.

But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don't understand is that this election has never been about me. It's been about you."

Maybe so.  But on this night, and on four previous occasions, Obama delivered an extraordinary speech and did so at just the right moment.  He knew what to say, he knew when to say it.  The task seems easy, but it's not.

And what's even more extraordinary, as I look back on this extraordinary campaign, is that Obama delivered two additionally great speeches at what might seem to be precisely the wrong time.  The speeches I have in mind were polished.  They were tight, cool, and wonderful in their prose, argument, and delivery.  Problem was, they did not fit the time.  Speeches first exist in the moment, I believe, and these weren't it.

Or so it might seem. 

The first great, oddly-timed speech by Obama came on the night on the New Hampshire Primary.  On the heels of the victory in the Iowa caucuses, polls suggested in the final 24 hours before the New Hampshire that Obama would not only win, but win by some 8-11 points.  If true, it would effectively mean the end of the campaign for Hillary Clinton.  But something happened in that final 24 hours.  Depending on who you talk to, Hillary found her voice, falsely claimed via a mailer to every women in New Hampshire that Obama was weak on supporting choice, and ultimately  found herself in the victory corner on a cold night in New Hampshire.

To everyone in the Obama campaign, Clinton's victory was a sharp, stinging rebuke.  It was the kind of night where you reach for the hard stuff.

But not Obama.

On that night, when victory was snatched away by a very strong opponent, Obama responded by tacking directly into the wind.  Today, nearly a year later, I remain amazed at what Obama did on that cold, New Hampshire night.

In the face of defeat, he did not yell.  He did not scream.  He did not apologize. 

Instead, with the exception of one minor concession, Obama gave his victory speech.

"I want to congratulate Senator Clinton on a hard-fought victory here in New Hampshire.

A few weeks ago, no one imagined that we’d have accomplished what we did here tonight. For most of this campaign, we were far behind, and we always knew our climb would be steep.

But in record numbers, you came out and spoke up for change. And with your voices and your votes, you made it clear that at this moment – in this election – there is something happening in America."

Here, finally, was proof positive about what Barack Obama meant in terms of hope.  It was in the dark hours, when there was not much light or optimism, that hope could and should prevail.  

"We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can withstand the power of millions of voices calling for change.

We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics who will only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks to come. We’ve been asked to pause for a reality check. We’ve been warned against offering the people of this nation false hope.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope. For when we have faced down impossible odds; when we’ve been told that we’re not ready, or that we shouldn’t try, or that we can’t, generations of Americans have responded with a simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people.

Yes we can.

It was a creed written into the founding documents that declared the destiny of a nation.

Yes we can.

It was whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail toward freedom through the darkest of nights.

Yes we can.

It was sung by immigrants as they struck out from distant shores and pioneers who pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness.

Yes we can."

That speech -- given at a time when most candidates would bend -- instead gave birth to an Obama victory in South Carolina, a numerical Obama victory in Nevada, and then a string of victories after the Super Tuesday-tie that gave Obama a lead which he never relinquished until June when it became clear that the Democratic nomination was his to claim. 

That speech, given in the most unlikely of circumstances, also gave birth to a viral video thanks to will.i.am, that turned the tables on the New Hampshire victory of Hillary Clinton.  Instead of defeat, suddenly and indescribably, there was hope.  Possibility.  A chance for a chance. 

Yes We Can. 

In many ways, it was the most unlikely victory speech, but perhaps the most effective speech of the entire Obama campaign.

Finally, I'd suggest (quietly) amidst all of these speeches, that Obama's speech on Election Night 2008 was also unusual in its timing.  Instead of tinkling the triumphant keys, instead of relishing in the victory of a particular political party, and frankly instead of playing to the inclinations of the more than one million people gathered in that park in Chicago, IL, Obama responded with a different kind of "Yes, We Can" speech.

When red meat would have sufficed, Obama instead gave the adoring crowd a sober assessment of the road ahead:

"I know you didn't do this just to win an election and I know you didn't do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor's bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there."

Tears streamed down my face as I watched Obama speak, as they did for many others.  My first vote for President was Jesse Jackson in the Democratic Primary of 1984, but it was more than this memory that caused this kind of emotional response.  For me, it was Obama's willingness to say that the road ahead would be hard, and that yet in that journey there was opportunity. 

Like many others, I had worked hard to make this day possible.  We should have been dancing in the streets in light of this triumph.  But instead, thanks to President-Elect Obama, we were brought back to earth.  The journey had, in fact, just begun.  This election gave us the chance to make change.  It was not change itself.

This was the kind of leadership for which we've hungered for many years.  It was the message we needed to hear. 

November 01, 2008

Manic before the Election

Madeline Kunin, the former Governor of Vermont, wrote a terrific post the other day about how she feels like a manic depressive in the final days of this campaign.

Governor Kunin, who has been canvassing very quietly and effectively in the Upper Valley with nothing more elaborate than a simple white name tag that reads "Madeline," wrote in her post that "that nothing can be taken for granted in the final days before an election. The only tonic for pre-election manic depression is to work for the campaign for as many hours and days of the week as possible."

So that's where I'm headed, first to Haverhill today and tomorrow for door-to-door canvassing, and then to Lyme to run our GOTV on Election Day.  You can get more information about what opportunities exist in and around Lyme at our Lyme Democratic Committee website

Like Kunin, I also find myself a-flutter, madly checking the latest polls on my iPhone. Slate has produced a really cool application that displays the latest polls state-by-state using some pretty neat visuals.  For $0.99, it's a real bargin and an example of how media ought to re-think themselves going forward.  Instead of simply publishing, they can also be producing and offering those products for sale to customers.  It does not help my mania, but it's sure great to use.

Helping to stabilize my mania are endorsements of Obama from conservatives of all stripes.  Yesterday, one of Reagan's chief of staffs, Ken Duberstein, endorsed Obama.  This morning there is a terrific post from Lyme's own Jeffrey Hart, a co-founder of the conservative Dartmouth Review, in which he re-affirmed his support for Obama with a terrific piece in Tina Brown's new venture, The Daily Beast.  Each of them help, but then memory kicks-in.

Obama was ahead in some polls by as much as ten points prior to the New Hampshire primary earlier this year.  I remember watching the early returns at a victory party, and people in the room looking bewildered as the numbers showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead.  Some 18% of NH voters made their decision the morning of the Primary, and they broke for Hillary.  The same could happen this Tuesday.

I saw it last weekend in Haverhill as I canvassed door-to-door.  We were identifying voters whom had not been reached yet, and to put it simply, these are not people who are going to buy the Slate poll tracker application anytime soon.  At door after door, I found voters who were not following the race closely, who did not know a lot about the candidates, and who had not made-up their minds.

As Howard Fineman of MSNBC and Newsweeks famously asked two days ago, "who are these people?"  

Let me tell you, they should be Democratic voters.  Many of them are working two or more jobs, their health security is minimal, and their optimism and hope for the future remains fragile at best.  Unfortunately, thanks to Nixon's Southern Strategy and the follow-on work of Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, these voters separated their economic concerns from their political behavior more than a generation ago. They may indicate a preference for Obama today, but from the look in their eyes, that support seems tenuous at best.  On Election Day, as they drive to the polls, if these rural undecided voters see local gas prices remain way under $3, and there are no headlines about the stock market tanking, I believe they will vote McCain - Palin. 

Will it be enough for victory for the Republicans?

That's where the field goal unit, or field operations, for Obama can make all the difference in the world.  Turning out committed Obama voters in droves to the polls -- early and often in the states where it's permitted -- could make all the difference.  Here in Lyme we've been focused on absentee voters, who could account for as much as 15% of all votes cast.  There's no question Lyme will support Obama; adding "lay-up" votes from the absentee list helps broaden the margin and protect against towns where Obama's margin is far less, or under water.

It also makes a huge difference that the Obama campaign itself is NOT manic.  Campaign manager David Plouffe, by all accounts, remains the steady hand on the wheel and that kind of discipline should reverberate throughout the organization.  The Election might be close, but there are few people other than Obama and Plouffe who I'd rather have leading the final drive.

Ultimately, I do think Obama will prevail and in so doing, help this great nation  take a dramatic and historic turn.  Until then, however, there is a lot of hard work ahead of us. 

P.S.  Minutes after filing this post, the Associated Press filed a story saying that Obama's aunt has been living illegally in the US for the last four years.  It's stuff like this -- the small stuff magnified by the pressure cooker of the final run -- which can change an election.

October 28, 2008

Irrational

I began this post two weeks ago on October 14, 2008.  The demands of family, work, local politics, and a 1,001 things have caused me not to finish the post since then. 

But the title of this post remains as true as it was two weeks ago.  Here is what I wrote on October 14th:

Alan Greenspan made famous the phrase "irrational exuberance" several years ago when he described the dot-com bubble and its messy aftermath.

Fast forward to 2008, and we find ourselves in times when a simple "irrational" best describes the world in which we live.

Here are three signs that logic, like Elvis, has left the building.

1.  The Dow Jones Index increasing by more than 900 points on Monday, October 13th. 

Huh? 

I'm sure we are all relieved that it's NOT the end of the world as we know it, but surely we can't be that happy.  The fundamentals -- both good and bad -- remain. 

There is an expanding global middle class and red-hot economies abroad.  Let's add those to the "plus" column. 

On the other hand, a long and protracted global recession is surely not far away.  Trade imbalances, currency problems, shrinking consumer markets, weak regulations, and (perhaps most importantly) an imbalance in the flows of capital between mortgages, nationalized asset managers, and high net-worth individual and institutional managers make for a messy situation that will take years to untangle.

(I wrote the above paragraph on Sunday night, Oct 12th.  Stock markets have responded accordingly).

2. Obama is way ahead in both national polls and in the polls of battleground states.

Again, I remember sitting on a similar lead of 6-10 points in New Hampshire the night of the primary in January 2008. 

Who won?  Not Senator Obama.

Assume nothing, not just as a tactical strategy but as an imperative.  Despite more than 20 months on the campaign trail, which have included countless interviews and more than thousands of in-person appearances, Senator Obama remains far too unknown and, frankly, scary to too many people.  This past weekend I canvassed in northern New Hampshire and while I was cheered by the overwhelming number of Republican-leaning or Independent-minded voters who were supporting Obama -- in fact, it wasn't even close in my group...Obama had everyone's support -- I heard from other canvassers that McCain is the preferred choice of many.

Time and other duties intervened before I could point #3 to my list, but the basic facts of my post from two weeks remain as true today as they did.

1) Today we saw the Dow increase by nearly 900 points, just as it did two weeks ago.  Despite signs that consumer confidence was at an all-time low, investors over-reacted to the possible news of an interest rate cut to drive stocks higher.  Crazy?  You bet.

2) I got three different phone calls today from good, smart people who said the same, dumb thing: "Looks good for Obama, right?"

Wrong.  He's way ahead in terms of voters in battleground states who are voting early, but otherwise it's a tie, according to Zogby.  In fact, as Zogby reports today, and as we all saw in New Hampshire some 11 months ago, there are plenty of voters whose support for either candidates remains incredibly soft.  I heard today from Zogby that some 18% of New Hampshire voters on Primary Day 2008 made-up their minds that morning!  I think the same is true today.   This race is more fluid and tight than most people realize.

3) The crisis has gone global.  We may not see the effect until after November 4th, but when I wrote above about "red-hot economies abroad," I was wrong.  Think Poland and Iceland.  Even China and India project slower growth.  There has been a lot of football talk about how this crisis goes beyond any playbook that economists and central bankers currently know.  The global dimension makes it a 3-D crisis, which is both good and bad.  Good -- because actors like Prime Minister Gordon Brown of England can take the lead in solving this problem.  Bad -- because what might work for the US is not what it takes to solve the problems of Iceland, and worse, those problems might be big enough to drag other stakeholders into the mud.

These days, in the waning days of Fall, when most of the beautiful leaves have fallen to the ground, I found myself listening to "Darkness on the Edge of Town" by  Bruce Springsteen. 

There's a lot of concern in that album, but, in the middle of the ten songs on "Darkness," is a simple lyric:

"Mister, I ain't a boy, no, I am a man, and I believe in the promised land."

Last weekend I went from house to house, and in some cases from room to room, in some of the poorest neighborhoods of New Hampshire.  Far too many people I met should have been Obama supporters.  Their teeth were yellow, their houses falling down, their clothing threadbare in the face of what promises to be a difficult winter.  But they were for the man who promises more tax cuts for the wealthy, the most modest of health care reforms, and a continuation of the war in Iraq which is served by the sons and daughters of the people I met.

I could have been discouraged, and maybe after Election Day, if the figures add-up to a McCain victory, I will be extremely discouraged.  But even then, I won't give up.  I believe these good people can be on our side.  It may seem irrational, but I believe that the message and policies offered by Barack Obama and the Democratic Party will serve the interests of most people. 

I think we are extremely close to winning that argument.  The next seven days will make it clear if we have been successful.

October 12, 2008

Panic & Gender

A few nights ago, after a busy, busy day at work -- the kind of day that did not end until 8:30pm -- I came home and, in the midst of my own wind-down from the day, realized that my youngest son needed some additional minding.

Convinced that there was a mouse in his bedroom, my son stood awake and fitful at 10:30pm and it became my job to restore order.  I hadn't eaten dinner yet.  Given the hour, I was (frankly) kinda fried.  And that's when, as a parent, you have to dig deep. 

So we cuddled in bed.  We sang songs and chatted.  We held hands.  And slowly but slowly, my son's breathing slowed, his heart rate fell, and sleep came to him like a soft blanket. 

In times like these, when your own agenda can so easily dominate the situation, the ordinary and simple get restored to their rightful place as most important.  It's not about that report you have to file.  Or that email you need to write.  It's about a young boy in the middle of the night who is scared and needs your hand.

And, as he and I lay there, as his breathing waxed and waned alongside the moon with the clouds, I wondered about the stock market and who was minding the fund managers that same evening.  For all of our hubris and confidence and capability, there come times when even the best and the brightest need something more than analytics and metrics to guide them.  In both the darkest and brightest moments, isn't it appropriate to ask, where is the cuddle?  When is the hand of a top 401k fund manager held?

I ask these questions not simply because that moment with my son occurred.

Rather, in following all too closely the stock market collapse of the past week/month/year, it's become apparent to me that gender might be playing a far larger role in our response than previously imagined.

Over the past ten days, as the S&P and Dow have plunged mightily, my observation is that men overreact and women remain calm.

Every guy I've seen, almost to a fault, have ignored the Red Sox and Patriots.  The only "game" we seem to follow these days is the stock market.  Whether it's a soccer sideline, a neighborhood bar, or chance meeting in a public space, the guys I know are obsessed (frankly) with every slight tick of the market.  We don't compare the scores from sports anymore.  It's how is General Electric doing, or Intel, the Dow, or the S&P. 

And, to make matters worse, the more we follow the stock market, the worse things seem to unfold.  There's an obsessiveness to men and the market.  Thru our Blackberrys, iPhones, and laptops, we relentless follow the market into a predictive depressive state. 

Women, on the other hand, seem cool, calm, and relaxed in this financial storm.  Even women with significant financial and I-banking experience react far differently than men with an amateur but well-intentioned understanding of the market.  As one woman put it to me, "Relax.  You're not helping anything with your worry.  Step back, see what happens, and then go from there."

These aren't ignorant people speaking.  On the contrary.  These are well-informed women whose reaction to the financial meltdown isn't panic, but consideration.  As if to say, "OK, you're in a crisis, but this won't last, and then what do we do...."

As opposed to most men, whose reaction (and I count myself among them) is to akin to saying "fire" in a crowded movie theater.

The interesting thing to note, of course, is that most Wall Street traders, brokers, and executives are.....drum roll, please.....: men.

Hmmmm.

Would the markets collapse so quickly and so precipitiously if there were more women on Wall Street?

I don't know, but I will share this anecdote.  The other night, my only daughter, an 8th grader, gathered her friends for their monthly "Mother-Daughter" book group.  In addition to sharing dinner and conversation about the book, the 8th graders got into costumes that reflected the characters in the book.  When I got home around 9:30pm with my sons, I found a group of women and early teenage girls in happy, bubbly, cooperative atmosphere.

This was a far contrast to the 6th grade all-boys sleepover held a week earlier at my house.  The former was "Little House on the Praire."  The 6th grade boys sleepover was "Lord of the Flies."  Whichever 6th grade boy was the biggest, won.  It was a state of affairs marked by constant fighting, boasting, and one-ups-manship.

Sure, I know it's the ages and maturity of the kids involved, but a certain immutable truth emerged from those experiences which has some bearing, in a modest way, on the markets we encounter today.  My sense is that women are the far more sensible, sane sex in many ways.  Guys like me all too often go for the jugular, whether we are 12 years old or 42 years old.  For us, it's an all-or-nothing proposition.  For women, let's just concede that they see an equation which is more balanced and harmonious. 

I would not want to suggest that DNA or gender equals destiny, but I do believe that future models of governance -- political or corporate -- ought to consider these factors.

October 09, 2008

Fear Itself

At a meeting of the Lyme Democrats earlier this week, on a day when the Dow had dropped some 500 points again, I reminded everyone that seventy-five years ago, a great American had risen to speak to the nation about illusory power of Fear.

Franklin Roosevelt's first inaugural address bears re-reading in 2008, not only for its eloquence and wisdom, but as a voice from the ages speaking to our present and immediate future.

After reminding his audience that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Roosevelt outlines the "common difficulties" facing the nation in 1933.

They concern, thank God, only material things. Values have shrunk to fantastic levels; taxes have risen; our ability to pay has fallen; government of all kinds is faced by serious curtailment of income; the means of exchange are frozen in the currents of trade; the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; farmers find no markets for their produce; and the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone. More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence, and an equally great number toil with little return. Only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.

And yet our distress comes from no failure of substance. We are stricken by no plague of locusts. Compared with the perils which our forefathers conquered, because they believed and were not afraid, we have still much to be thankful for. Nature still offers her bounty and human efforts have multiplied it. Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply.

Primarily, this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and have abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.

True, they have tried. But their efforts have been cast in the pattern of an outworn tradition. Faced by failure of credit, they have proposed only the lending of more money. Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully for restored confidence. They only know the rules of a generation of self-seekers. They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish.

Yes, the money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of that restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit.

The entire address can be read here, but even this brief excerpt suggests an uncanny resemblance to the financial challenges of 2008.  Greed and unsupportable credit? Check.  Belief that the pursuit of profit without social values or vision leads to ruin for the people?  Check.  Faith in the American people who have triumphed in the face of harder challenges in our past?  Check.

And yet, as I read these remarks, I am also reminded that Fear has a power of its own, a power that does not change with time.  We may seem modern and more sophisticated than the world of 1933, and believe our political and financial institutions have been updated to withstand any challenge, but Fear has not changed. 

In political terms, Fear plays on what Arianna Huffington of The Huffington Post has called the "reptilian or lizard brain."

Deep in the brain lies the amygdala, an almond-sized region that generates fear. When this fear state is activated, the amygdala springs into action. Before you are even consciously aware that you are afraid, your lizard brain responds by clicking into survival mode. No time to assess the situation, no time to look at the facts, just: fight, flight or freeze.

When we are in this state, we are biologically programmed to pay less attention to left-brain signals -- indeed, our logical mind actually shuts itself down. Fear paralyzes our reasoning and literally makes it impossible to think straight. It's the neuroscience, stupid!

It's no wonder, then, that McCain and Palin -- in times likes these -- continue to hit the Fear button at their campaign rallies and in their television advertising.  Whether it's using Obama's fullname ("...my opponent, Barack Hussein Obama...") or making false claims about befriending "domestic terrorists," the McCain-Palin team have responded to the financial crisis by injecting more fear into the national conversation. 

We know the tactic worked, at least for a while, in the early parts of the 2008 Democratic primary when Hillary Clinton falsely claimed Obama would not support a woman's right to choose.  On the day before the New Hampshire Primary, a mailer went to every woman in the Granite State with that fearful claim, and Obama narrowly lost an election where polls indicated he was ahead by a substantial margin.

Fast forward to November 4, 2008.  Althought Obama appears to be ahead in enough states to win the election, I believe this election will be close, and it will be close because Fear stands resurgent like Lord Voldemort.  This generation has not known such Fear and no matter how much has changed since 1933 in terms of our tolerance regarding race, Fear remains a powerful, almost unrelenting presence.

On that day, millions of Americans -- and if the number of people watching the Presidential debates are any indication, we could see a staggering large turnout that day -- will enter a small, dark booth to cast a vote in private.  This is where Fear works best.  As The New Yorker writer Steve Coll writes this week in his blog that "People don’t generally panic in the sunshine. They panic in the dark." 

So, what will happen?  Will Fear triumph in the voter booth in November? 

The answer resides largely with each of us.  If we act as mere individuals -- unconnected from our neighbor, concerned about ourselves only -- Fear stands a good chance of winning in less than four weeks. 

On the other hand, if we act as a community, being mindful of what Roosevelt called "our interdependence on one another," then I believe the dark recesses of the voting booth will fade.  In order to vanquish Fear in the 2008 election, people everywhere must come together to vote their conscience.  The choice is ours to make.  We should not be afraid.

October 04, 2008

Phalin', Phlailin' Sarah Palin

On Thursday night, I hurried home from a fundraiser for Barack Obama to watch the Vice Presidential debate with my daughter, who had wisely been asked to watch it and an upcoming Presidential debate as part of her 8th grade social studies class. 

Along with Red Sox, the 2008 Presidential race has been a frequent topic of discussion between and my daughter for the past two years, not only for its currency but also a prism into a larger world she is discovering as a teenager.  When Manny was traded to Los Angeles, the larger question arose, why do teams trade players anyway, and what does this mean about loyalty?  As I watched the Sarah Palin performance on Thursday, where she did an admirable job of impersonating a Vice Presidential candidate, the larger question actually arose to me:  what kind of virtues does Sarah Palin model for my daughter given the way she answered responded to questions in the debate?

Leaving aside political ideology -- there's very little I think my daughter ought to embrace in Palin's rigid political ideology, but that's her choice to make, not mine -- it seemed that Sarah Palin demonstrated the unattractiveness found in adults who have not matured. 

Instead of displaying consideration for a different point of view, Palin rigidly showed  certainty in her answers and views of the world.  She winked like a used car salesman instead of relying on the strength of her words to support her argument.  Instead of using evidence, Palin relied on repititive bumper stickers phrases like "mavericks" and "greed and corruption on Wall Street."  She ignored questions, talked over her opponent, and as is increasingly the case with the McCain campaign, and used small mis-representative things to make her case (e.g., the Obama tax increases).  And she dropped world-shaping, Constitution re-writing ideas -- like enhanced powers for the Vice President, or placing the American embassy in Jerusaleum -- into the debate as if they mere trifles.

Leave aside what Palin suggests as a woman.  As a person, Palin stands for the dumb and dumber adult.  She does not know the world, and does not care if she knows it.  Her sensibility stretches about as far as Paris Hilton's, where impressions triumph substance (the best example being Palin's correction of Biden on the phrase "drill, baby, drill").

In his dystopian film, "Idiocracy," Mike Judge (creator of the MTV's "Beavis and Butthead") suggests an American future filled with creatures like Palin who are certain and stupid.  That film placed "Idiocracy" to be 500 years from today.  The reality is, in less than a month, Palin could be a 72-year old's heartbeat away from leading the United States.  It's a horrifying thought. 

She is unqualified to be the President, especially in a time of war and economic collapse.  As an adult, she stands for everything our kids should not become as they mature. 

And yet there she is, winking and insisting her way to the top. 

I don't know if my daughter noticed all of this while watching the debate (she did catch that every time Palin used the word "family," the focus group watchers on CNN recorded a more favorable impression of her).  But I did, and afterwards while throwing the ball to my dog on one of the first cold evenings of Fall, when there wasn't much of a moon, when it seemed like the headlines could not get worse, everything around me seemed a bit darker and more forboding.